Ascia monuste orseis Godart (Lepidoptera: Pieridae) is a neotropical butterfly distributed in South America. During the larval stage, this insect causes economic losses on Brassica crops. Wet and warm conditions are known to increase subspecies occurrence, but it remains unclear why these conditions are more suitable. In this study, we have shown that both conditions are highly favourable for A. monuste orseis . We determined the thermal requirements for immature development and then created models for A. monuste orseis occurrence using Climex algorithm. Two models were built: one for the year-round presence and other for seasonal suitability. We validated the models using subspecies occurrence records and monitoring in two Brazilian regions (Northeast and Southeast). The minimum, optimum and maximum temperature for immature development were estimated at 16.37, 29.16 and 34.95 °C, respectively. The model for year-round presence indicated tropical areas as highly suitable for A. monuste orseis occurrence (with 88% of accuracy) and the seasonal models showed unsuitable areas in some parts of South America during cold and dry periods. Such predictions were observed in the monitored areas where A. monuste orseis was not found. These results can be associated with the mortality caused by low temperature to immature stages and drought conditions that may induce adult migration to moist habitats. Thus, we suggest that A. monuste orseis occurs mainly during wet and warm seasons on Brassica crops due to deleterious effects caused by cold and dry conditions. This information can be used to improve A. monuste orseis management in Brassica crops.

中文翻译：

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潮湿和温暖的条件导致新热带蝴蝶 Ascia monuste orseis Godart（鳞翅目：Pieridae）在芸苔属作物上发生

Ascia monuste orseis Godart (Lepidoptera: Pieridae) 是一种分布于南美洲的新热带蝴蝶。在幼虫阶段，这种昆虫对芸苔属作物造成经济损失。已知潮湿和温暖的条件会增加亚种的出现，但尚不清楚为什么这些条件更适合。在这项研究中，我们已经表明这两种条件都非常有利于 A. monuste orseis。我们确定了未成熟发育的热需求，然后使用 Climex 算法创建了 A. monuste orseis 发生的模型。建造了两种型号：一种用于全年存在，另一种用于季节性适用。我们使用巴西两个地区（东北部和东南部）的亚种发生记录和监测来验证模型。最小值，未成熟发育的最佳和最高温度分别估计为 16.37、29.16 和 34.95 °C。全年存在的模型表明热带地区非常适合 A. monuste orseis 发生（准确率为 88%），而季节性模型表明南美洲某些地区在寒冷和干旱时期不适合发生。在未发现 A. monuste orseis 的监测区域中观察到了此类预测。这些结果可能与低温到未成熟阶段和干旱条件导致的死亡率有关，这些条件可能会导致成虫迁移到潮湿的栖息地。因此，由于寒冷和干燥条件引起的有害影响，我们认为 A. monuste orseis 主要发生在芸苔属作物的潮湿和温暖季节。该信息可用于改进 A.