The study of the influence of climate change on the evolution of floods in areas under the influence of a Mediterranean climate is very important. This work aims to provide new analytical elements to decision-makers in flood management and forecasting in three Mediterranean catchments (Lonquen, Evrotas, and Azzaba), in order to better understand their hydrological behavior and to quantify the flow and its vulnerability to climate change. A semi-distributed conceptual model (HBV-A model) was used to simulate flows with a daily time step. The model results (simulated flows) were used to examine the evolution of high flows using two different approaches (linear regressions and statistical test). The Chilean and the Greece catchments show a decrease in flooding. However, the Moroccan catchment reacts differently, since a positive trend in high flows is observed. The overall results confirm the influence of climate change on the rainfall/runoff relationship.

研究气候变化对地中海气候影响地区洪水演变的影响非常重要。这项工作旨在为三个地中海流域（朗肯，埃夫罗塔斯和阿扎巴）的洪水管理和预报决策者提供新的分析要素，以便更好地了解其水文行为并量化水流及其对气候变化的脆弱性。使用半分布式概念模型（HBV-A模型）模拟每日时间步长的流量。模型结果（模拟流量）用于通过两种不同的方法（线性回归和统计检验）检查高流量的演变。智利和希腊流域的洪水减少了。但是，摩洛哥流域的反应有所不同，因为观察到高流量的积极趋势。总体结果证实了气候变化对降雨/径流关系的影响。