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Brazil’s emission trajectories in a well-below 2 °C world: the role of disruptive technologies versus land-based mitigation in an already low-emission energy system
Climatic Change ( IF 4.8 ) Pub Date : 2020-10-01 , DOI: 10.1007/s10584-020-02856-6
Alexandre C. Köberle , Pedro R. R. Rochedo , André F. P. Lucena , Alexandre Szklo , Roberto Schaeffer

The Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to the Paris Agreement (PA) submitted so far do not put the world on track to meet the targets of the Agreement and by 2020 countries should ratchet up ambition in the new round of NDCs. Brazil’s NDC to the PA received mixed reviews and has been rated as “medium” ambition. We use the Brazil Land Use and Energy System (BLUES) model to explore low-emission scenarios for Brazil for the 2010–2050 period that cost-effectively raise ambition to levels consistent with PA targets. Our results reinforce the fundamental role of the agriculture, forest, and land use (AFOLU) sectors and explore inter-sectoral linkages to power generation and transportation. We identify transportation as a prime candidate for decarbonization, leveraging Brazil’s already low-carbon electricity production and its high bioenergy production. Results indicate the most important mitigation measures are electrification of the light-duty vehicle (LDV) fleet for passenger transportation, biodiesel and biokerosene production via Fischer-Tropsch synthesis from lignocellulosic feedstock, and intensification of agricultural production. The use of carbon capture and storage (CCS) as well as netzero deforestation make significant contributions. We identify opportunities for Brazil, but synergies and trade-offs across sectors should be minded when designing climate policies.

中文翻译:

巴西在远低于 2°C 的世界中的排放轨迹:破坏性技术与陆基减排在已经低排放的能源系统中的作用

迄今为止提交的《巴黎协定》(PA)国家自主贡献(NDC)并未使世界步入实现该协定目标的轨道,到 2020 年,各国应在新一轮 NDC 中加大力度。巴西对巴勒斯坦权力机构的国家自主贡献收到了褒贬不一的评价,并被评为“中等”雄心。我们使用巴西土地利用和能源系统 (BLUES) 模型来探索巴西在 2010-2050 年期间的低排放情景,以经济有效地将雄心壮志提高到与 PA 目标一致的水平。我们的研究结果加强了农业、森林和土地利用 (AFOLU) 部门的基本作用,并探索了与发电和运输的部门间联系。我们将交通视为脱碳的主要候选者,利用巴西已经低碳的电力生产和高生物能源生产。结果表明,最重要的缓解措施是用于客运的轻型车辆 (LDV) 车队的电气化、通过木质纤维素原料的费-托合成生产生物柴油和生物煤油,以及农业生产的集约化。碳捕获和储存 (CCS) 的使用以及净零森林砍伐做出了重大贡献。我们为巴西寻找机会,但在设计气候政策时应考虑跨部门的协同作用和权衡。从木质纤维素原料中通过费-托合成法生产生物柴油和生物煤油,以及农业生产的集约化。碳捕获和储存 (CCS) 的使用以及净零森林砍伐做出了重大贡献。我们为巴西寻找机会,但在设计气候政策时应考虑跨部门的协同作用和权衡。从木质纤维素原料中通过费-托合成法生产生物柴油和生物煤油,以及农业生产的集约化。碳捕获和储存 (CCS) 的使用以及净零森林砍伐做出了重大贡献。我们为巴西寻找机会,但在设计气候政策时应考虑跨部门的协同作用和权衡。
更新日期:2020-10-01
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