Abstract

Background

Equations predicting age at peak height velocity (APHV) are often used to assess somatic maturity and to adjust training load accordingly. However, information on the intra-individual accuracy of APHV in youth athletes is not available.

Aim

The purpose of this study is to assess the accuracy of predication equations for the estimation of APHV in individual youth male football players.

Subjects and methods

Body dimensions were measured at least every three months in 17 elite youth male football players (11.9 ± 0.8 years at baseline) from the 2008–2009 through the 2011–2012 seasons. APHV was predicted at each observation with four suggested equations. Predicted APHV was compared to the player’s observed APHV using one-sample-t-tests and equivalence-tests. Longitudinal stability was assessed by comparing the linear coefficient of the deviation to zero.

Results

Predicted APHV was equivalent to the observed APHV in none of the players. A difference with a large effect size (Cohen’s d > 0.8) was noted in 87% of the predictions. Moreover, predictions were not stable over time in 71% of the cases.

Conclusions

None of the evaluated prediction equations is accurate for estimating APHV in individual players nor are predictions stable over time, which limits their utility for adjusting training programmes.

中文翻译：

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单个精英男子足球运动员中成熟度预测方程的准确性

摘要

背景

通常使用方程式预测峰值速度下的年龄（APHV）来评估躯体成熟度并相应地调整训练负荷。但是，尚无有关青年运动员中APHV的个体内准确性的信息。

目标

这项研究的目的是评估预测公式的准确性，以估计单个青年男性足球运动员的APHV。

主题与方法

从2008-2009赛季到2011-2012赛季，至少每三个月对17名精英青年男子足球运动员（基线为11.9±0.8岁）进行一次身体尺寸测量。在每次观察中均使用四个建议方程式预测了APHV。使用一次样本t检验和当量检验将预测的APHV与玩家观察到的APHV进行比较。通过将偏差的线性系数与零进行比较来评估纵向稳定性。

结果

在所有参与者中，预测的APHV与观察到的APHV相同。 在87％的预测中发现了较大的效应量差异（Cohen d > 0.8）。此外，在71％的案例中，预测随着时间的推移并不稳定。

结论

评估后的预测方程式均无法准确估计单个运动员的APHV，而且预测值随时间推移也不稳定，这限制了其在调整训练计划中的效用。