Purpose of the Review

Climate change presents significant risks to the international trade and supply chain systems with potentially profound and cascading effects for the global economy. A robust international trade system may also be central to managing future climate risks. Here, we assess the treatment (or lack thereof) of trade in a selection of recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment and special reports using a quantitative text analysis. IPCC reports are considered the preeminent source of relevant climate change information and underpin international climate change negotiations.

Study Findings

Results show that international trade has not had substantial coverage in recent IPCC assessments. Relevant keywords associated with trade appear in very limited ways, generally in relation to the words “product” and “transport.” These keywords are often referring to emissions associated with transportation and the movement of food and global food systems. The influence of trade is given larger consideration with respect to the costs and trade-offs of climate mitigation policies, especially the interactions with food availability, that appear in Working Group III reports compared with the risks to trade from climate change impacts in Working Group II. Trade in relation to other economic sectors is largely absent as well as risks from potential climate-related trade disruption. There is almost no treatment of the potential impacts, risks, and adaptation strategies to manage the climate related-implications for international trade.

Recommendations

Given the importance of trade to economic growth, we recommend that additional attention be paid to trade and related economic issues in future IPCC assessment and special reports, specifically on the interactions of climate impacts and risks on trade and the potential for trade to moderate these risks. To achieve this, there must be efforts to increase the base of scientific literature focused on climate change and international trade as well as increased effort made among IPCC lead authors to review trade literature that may lie outside conventional climate change scholarship.

中文翻译：

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政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）报告中对国际经济贸易的处理

审查目的

气候变化给国际贸易和供应链系统带来了巨大的风险，对全球经济具有潜在的深远影响。健全的国际贸易体系对于管理未来的气候风险也可能至关重要。在这里，我们使用量化的文本分析方法，在最近的政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）评估报告和特别报告中，评估了贸易的待遇（或缺乏贸易）。IPCC的报告被认为是有关气候变化信息的主要来源，是国际气候变化谈判的基础。

研究结果

结果表明，在IPCC最近的评估中，国际贸易没有得到实质性的覆盖。与贸易相关的相关关键字以非常有限的方式出现，通常与“产品”和“运输”相关。这些关键字通常是指与运输，粮食和全球粮食系统的运输有关的排放。与第三工作组报告中的气候变化贸易风险相比，第三工作组报告中出现的气候减缓政策的成本和权衡问题，尤其是与粮食供应之间的相互作用，需要更多地考虑贸易的影响。 。主要缺乏与其他经济部门的贸易，以及与气候相关的潜在贸易中断的风险。几乎没有对潜在影响，风险，

推荐建议

考虑到贸易对经济增长的重要性，我们建议在未来的IPCC评估和特别报告中，应特别关注贸易和相关经济问题，尤其是气候影响和贸易风险之间的相互作用以及贸易减轻这些风险的潜力。为实现这一目标，必须做出努力，以扩大针对气候变化和国际贸易的科学文献的基础，并加大IPCC主要作者对可能超出常规气候变化研究范围的贸易文献的审查力度。