The application of Markov chains to modelling refugee crises is explored, focusing on local migration of individuals at the level of cities and days. As an explicit example, we apply the Markov chains migration model developed here to United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees data on the Burundi refugee crisis. We compare our method to a state-of-the-art ‘agent-based’ model of Burundi refugee movements, and highlight that Markov chain approaches presented here can improve the match to data while simultaneously being more algorithmically efficient.

中文翻译：

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难民迁移数据的马尔可夫链模型

探索了马尔可夫链在模拟难民危机中的应用，重点是在城市和时代水平上个人的本地迁移。作为一个明确的例子，我们将此处开发的马尔可夫链迁移模型应用于联合国难民事务高级专员关于布隆迪难民危机的数据。我们将我们的方法与布隆迪难民运动的最新“基于主体”模型进行了比较，并强调了此处介绍的马尔可夫链方法可以改善与数据的匹配，同时提高算法效率。