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Agent-based modelling of pedestrian responses during flood emergency: mobility behavioural rules and implications for flood risk analysis
Journal of Hydroinformatics ( IF 2.2 ) Pub Date : 2020-07-15 , DOI: 10.2166/hydro.2020.031
Mohammad Shirvani 1 , Georges Kesserwani 1 , Paul Richmond 2
Affiliation  

An agent-based model (ABM) for simulating flood-pedestrian interaction is augmented to particularly explore more realistic responses of evacuating pedestrians during flooding. Pedestrian agents within the ABM follow navigation rules of governing their movement in dry areas. When in floodwater, pedestrian agents are assigned extra behavioural rules to factor in their states of stability and walking speed, and their different body height and weight. The ABM is applied to replicate a synthetic test case of a flooded shopping centre, considering increasingly sophisticated configuration modes for the behavioural rules of the evacuating pedestrians. Simulation results are analysed based on spatial and temporal indicators informing on the dynamic variations of flood risk states of flooded pedestrians in terms of a commonly used flood Hazard Rating (HR) metric, variable walking speed, and instability due to toppling and/or sliding. Our analysis reveal significantly prolonged evacuation times and risk exposure levels as stability and walking speed behavioural rules become more sophisticated. It also allows to identify more conservative HR thresholds due to unstable pedestrians, and a new formula to directly estimate walking speed states as function of HR for stable pedestrian in floodwater. Accompanying details for software accessibility are provided.

中文翻译:

基于代理的洪水应急期间行人响应建模:移动行为规则及其对洪水风险分析的影响

用于模拟洪水与行人交互的基于代理的模型 (ABM) 得到增强,以特别探索在洪水期间疏散行人的更真实的反应。ABM 内的行人代理遵循导航规则来管理他们在干旱地区的移动。在洪水中,行人代理被分配额外的行为规则,以考虑他们的稳定性和步行速度的状态,以及他们不同的身高和体重。考虑到越来越复杂的疏散行人行为规则的配置模式,ABM 被应用于复制一个被淹没的购物中心的综合测试案例。模拟结果基于空间和时间指标进行分析,这些指标根据常用的洪水危险等级 (HR) 指标、可变步行速度以及由于倾倒和/或滑动导致的不稳定性来通知被淹行人的洪水风险状态的动态变化。我们的分析显示,随着稳定性和步行速度行为规则变得更加复杂,疏散时间和风险暴露水平显着延长。它还允许识别由于不稳定的行人而导致的更保守的 HR 阈值,以及一个新的公式,用于直接估计作为 HR 函数的步行速度状态作为洪水中稳定行人的函数。提供了软件可访问性的相关详细信息。我们的分析显示,随着稳定性和步行速度行为规则变得更加复杂,疏散时间和风险暴露水平显着延长。它还允许识别由于不稳定的行人而导致的更保守的 HR 阈值,以及一个新的公式,用于直接估计作为 HR 函数的步行速度状态作为洪水中稳定行人的函数。提供了软件可访问性的相关详细信息。我们的分析显示,随着稳定性和步行速度行为规则变得更加复杂,疏散时间和风险暴露水平显着延长。它还允许识别由于不稳定的行人而导致的更保守的 HR 阈值,以及一个新的公式,用于直接估计作为 HR 函数的步行速度状态作为洪水中稳定行人的函数。提供了软件可访问性的相关详细信息。
更新日期:2020-07-15
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