Social-ecological systems are complex and involve uncertainties emerging from interactions between biophysical and social system components. In the face of growing complexity and uncertainty, stakeholder engagement with the future is important to proactively manoeuvre toward desirable outcomes. Focusing on the interrelated challenges of food security and biodiversity conservation, we conducted a participatory scenario planning exercise in a rural landscape in southwestern Ethiopia. We involved 35 stakeholder organizations in multiple workshops to construct causal loop diagrams, elicit critical uncertainties, and draft scenario narratives. Jointly, we developed four plausible future scenarios for the studied landscape: (1) gain over grain: local cash crops; (2) mining green gold: coffee investors; (3) coffee and conservation: a biosphere reserve; and (4) food first: intensive farming and forest protection. These scenarios differ with respect to their main social-economic dynamics as well as their food security and biodiversity outcomes. Importantly, three of the four scenarios, i.e., all except “coffee and conservation: a biosphere reserve,” focused on increasing efficiency in agricultural production through intensification, specialization, and market integration. In contrast, “coffee and conservation: a biosphere reserve” was driven by agroecological production methods that support diversified livelihoods, a multifunctional landscape, maintenance of natural capital, a governance system that supports local people, and social-ecological resilience. Similar agroecological trajectories have been advocated as desirable for sustainable development in numerous other smallholder farming systems worldwide. Given fewer trade-offs and better equity outcomes, it appears that an agroecological development pathway stands a good chance of generating synergies between food security and biodiversity conservation. Pathways prioritizing agricultural efficiency, in contrast, are more likely to degrade natural capital and cause social inequity.

中文翻译：

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协调粮食安全和生物多样性保护：埃塞俄比亚西南部的参与性情景规划

社会生态系统是复杂的，并且涉及生物物理和社会系统组成部分之间的相互作用而产生的不确定性。面对日益增长的复杂性和不确定性，利益相关者对未来的参与对于主动调动预期成果至关重要。着眼于粮食安全和生物多样性保护的相互关联的挑战，我们在埃塞俄比亚西南部的乡村景观中进行了参与性情景规划练习。我们让35个利益相关者组织参与了多个研讨会，以构建因果关系图，得出关键不确定性并草拟情景说明。我们共同为所研究的景观开发了四个可能的未来方案：（1）谷物获利：当地经济作物；（2）开采绿金：咖啡投资者；（3）咖啡与保护：生物圈保护区；（4）粮食优先：集约化农业和森林保护。这些情景在其主要的社会经济动态，粮食安全和生物多样性成果方面有所不同。重要的是，这四个方案中的三个，即除“咖啡和保护：生物圈保护区”之外的所有方案，都集中在通过集约化，专业化和市场整合来提高农业生产效率上。相反，“咖啡和保护：生物圈保护区”是由支持多样化生计的农业生态生产方法，多功能景观，自然资本的维持，支持当地人民的治理体系以及社会生态适应力驱动的。在世界范围内的许多其他小农耕作系统中，类似的农业生态轨迹被认为是可持续发展的理想选择。考虑到较少的取舍和更好的公平成果，看来农业生态发展途径很有可能在粮食安全和生物多样性保护之间产生协同作用。相比之下，优先考虑农业效率的途径更有可能降低自然资本并导致社会不平等。