The biophysical mechanisms influencing larval distribution and their impacts on the metapopulation dynamics of sandy beaches, particularly the connectivity patterns associated with larval dispersal, are poorly understood. Here, we identify larval connectivity patterns of the mole crab Emerita brasiliensis in the coast of Uruguay. A biophysical individual based model (IBM) of larval transport was coupled to a regional high-resolution physical model to estimate the monthly and interannual variation of larval connectivity, as well as the impact of the length of the reproductive period on it. Larval connectivity showed marked interannual variations, which were mainly related to interannual changes in seasonal winds and associated ocean circulation patterns, particularly during La Niña years. The southernmost area where E. brasiliensis occurs only received larvae from the nearest release area in November and January spawning events during a strong La Niña year, characterized by intense northeasterly winds. The Uruguayan coast constitutes the leading (poleward) edge of the distribution of E. brasiliensis, where climate change effects are projected to intensify. Extrapolation of these results to a climate change scenario with stronger La Niña events, suggest that larval transport to southernmost beaches will become more probable.

人们对影响幼虫分布的生物物理机制及其对沙滩迁移动力学的影响，特别是与幼虫扩散相关的连通性模式的了解很少。在这里，我们确定了mole蟹Emerita brasiliensis的幼虫连接模式在乌拉圭的海岸。将基于生物物理个体的幼虫运输模型（IBM）与区域高分辨率物理模型耦合，以估计幼虫连通性的每月和年际变化，以及生育期长度对其的影响。幼虫的连通性显示出明显的年际变化，这主要与季节性风和相关海洋环流模式的年际变化有关，特别是在拉尼娜年期间。在强劲的拉尼娜年份（以强烈的东北风为特征）中，巴西大肠杆菌的最南端地区仅在最近的释放区域的11月和1月产卵。乌拉圭海岸构成了分布的前缘（极地）预计在巴西大肠埃希菌对气候变化的影响将加剧。将这些结果推算为发生拉尼娜事件更为严重的气候变化情景，表明幼虫向最南端海滩的运输将变得更有可能。