Regarding the effects of warming on phenology, essentially that climate warming is advancing vegetation phenology around the globe, and case studies of specific species/regions work to gauge this impact. Thus, we attempted to demonstrate phenological patterns of selected 4 alpine/sub-alpine and 4 temperate medicinal herbs based on higher medicinal value of Indian Himalayan Region (IHR) using total 654 herbarium records and applied Generalized Additive Model (GAM) as non-normal and non-linear application. The GAM demonstrated an advancement in the flowering time for alpine/sub-alpine species (Arnebia benthamii, Meconopsis aculeata, Podophyllum hexandrum) and temperate species (Delphinium denudatum and Dioscorea deltoidea), while delayed flowering for Swertia cordata (p < 0.001). Combining the herbarium records, the model significantly projected advancement in flowering time (21–25 days) over the last 100 years only for alpine/sub-alpine species (p < 0.0001). However, the relationship between flowering time and warming winter temperature was predicted advancement in flowering time for alpine/sub-alpine species (6–10 days per 1 °C) and temperate species (8–11 days per 1 °C). The results reveal that long-term herbarium records may be considered as a useful tool for predicting the possible impact of climate change on plant phenology in the IHR using GAM approach.

关于变暖对物候的影响，从本质上讲，气候变暖正在推动全球的植物物候学发展，对特定物种/地区的案例研究旨在评估这种影响。因此，我们尝试根据印度喜马拉雅地区（IHR）较高的药用价值，使用总共654张植物标本室记录来证明选定的4种高山/亚高山和4种温带药草的物候模式，并应用广义添加模型（GAM）作为非正常值和非线性应用。GAM证明了高山/亚高山物种（紫草，Meconopsis aculeata，鬼臼）和温带物种（Delphinium denudatum和Dioscorea deltoidea）的开花时间有所延长，而Swertia cordata的开花时间却有所延迟。（p  <0.001）。结合植物标本室的记录，该模型仅预测了过去100年中仅高山/亚高山物种的开花时间（21–25天）的增长（p  <0.0001）。但是，据预测开花时间与冬季气温升高之间的关系对高山/亚高山物种（每1°C 6-10天）和温带物种（每1°C 8-11天）开花时间会有所增加。结果表明，使用GAM方法，长期标本室记录可能被认为是预测IHR中气候变化对植物物候的可能影响的有用工具。