In view of the influence of model errors in conventional BeiDou prediction models for clock offsets, a semiparametric adjustment model for BeiDou Navigation Satellite System (BDS) clock offset prediction that considers model errors is proposed in this paper. First, the model errors of the conventional BeiDou clock offset prediction model are analyzed. Additionally, the relationship among the polynomial model, polynomial model with additional periodic term correction, and its periodic correction terms is explored in detail. Second, considering the model errors, combined with the physical relationship between phase, frequency, frequency drift, and its period in the clock sequence, the conventional clock offset prediction model is improved. Using kernel estimation and comprehensive least squares, the corresponding parameter solutions of the prediction model and the estimation of its model error are derived, and the dynamic error correction of the clock sequence model is realized. Finally, the BDS satellite precision clock data provided by the IGS Center of Wuhan University with a sampling interval of 5 min are used to compare the proposed prediction method with commonly used methods. Experimental results show that the proposed prediction method can better correct the model errors of BDS satellite clock offsets, and it can effectively overcome the inaccuracies of clock offset correction. The average forecast accuracies of the BeiDou satellites at 6, 12, and 24 h are 27.13%, 37.71%, and 45.08% higher than those of the conventional BeiDou clock offset forecast models; the average model improvement rates are 16.92%, 20.96%, and 28.48%, respectively. In addition, the proposed method enhances the existing BDS satellite prediction method for clock offsets to a certain extent.

中文翻译：

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考虑模型误差的基于半参数调整模型的BDS卫星时钟偏移预​​测

鉴于模型误差在传统的北斗时钟偏移预​​测模型中的影响，提出了一种考虑模型误差的北斗导航卫星系统时钟偏移预​​测的半参数调整模型。首先，分析了传统北斗时钟偏移预​​测模型的模型误差。此外，还详细探讨了多项式模型，具有附加周期项校正的多项式模型及其周期校正项之间的关系。其次，考虑模型误差，结合时钟序列中相位，频率，频率漂移及其周期之间的物理关系，对传统的时钟偏移预​​测模型进行了改进。使用核估计和综合最小二乘，推导了预测模型的相应参数解及其模型误差的估计，实现了时钟序列模型的动态误差校正。最后，使用武汉大学IGS中心提供的BDS卫星精密时钟数据以5分钟的采样间隔将建议的预测方法与常用方法进行比较。实验结果表明，所提出的预测方法可以较好地校正BDS卫星时钟偏移的模型误差，可以有效地克服时钟偏移校正的不准确性。北斗卫星在6、12和24 h的平均预报准确度分别比常规北斗时钟偏移预​​报模型高27.13％，37.71％和45.08％。平均模型改进率分别为16.92％，20.96％和28.48％，分别。此外，所提出的方法在一定程度上增强了现有的BDS卫星时钟偏移预​​测方法。