This study modelled the probability of introduction of Hyalomma marginatum into Europe by predicting the potential migratory routes of 28 bird species and the probability to carry immatures of the tick. Flyways were modelled as a spatio-temporal feature, at weekly intervals, using satellite-derived data of temperature and vegetal phenology, together with cost surfaces derived from speed and direction of the wind (years 2002–2018). The expected period of activity of tick immatures defined the probability of ticks being carried by birds along the modelled flyways. The probability of moulting of the engorged nymphs was modelled as a linear relationship of the daily sum of temperatures after tick introduction by birds. Positive probabilities of tick introduction extend the known northern range of permanent populations to central and western France, and large portions of central Europe. The flight of birds into an area and thence the risk of introduction of H. marginatum is very heterogeneous, with sites receiving “waves” of different bird species at diverse times of the year. Therefore, there is not a clear period of time for introduction, as it depends on the modelled behaviour of the bird species. The probability of introduction into Baltic and Nordic countries is small. We hypothesise that conditions of a warmer climate might support permanent populations of H. marginatum if a high number of immatures is introduced. Active surveys in risky territories, where the tick is not yet established, are advisable for rapid intervention.

这项研究模拟了引入Hyalomma marginatum的可能性通过预测 28 种鸟类的潜在迁徙路线和携带未成熟蜱的概率进入欧洲。飞行路线被建模为时空特征，每周一次，使用卫星衍生的温度和植物物候数据，以及从风速和风向（2002-2018 年）得出的成本面。蜱幼虫的预期活动期定义了鸟类沿模拟飞行路线携带蜱的概率。饱食若虫蜕皮的概率被建模为鸟类引入蜱后每日温度总和的线性关系。蜱引入的正概率将已知的北部永久种群范围扩展到法国中部和西部以及中欧的大部分地区。H. marginatum是非常异质的，在一年中的不同时间，站点接收不同鸟类的“波浪”。因此，没有明确的引入时间段，因为它取决于鸟类物种的建模行为。传入波罗的海和北欧国家的可能性很小。我们假设如果引入大量未成熟的，温暖气候的条件可能支持H. marginatum 的永久种群。建议在尚未建立蜱虫的风险地区进行积极调查，以进行快速干预。