Future air quality will be driven by changes in air pollutant emissions, but also changes in climate. Here, we review the recent literature on future air quality scenarios and projected changes in effects on human health, crops and ecosystems. While there is overlap in the scenarios and models used for future projections of air quality and climate effects on human health and crops, similar efforts have not been widely conducted for ecosystems. Few studies have conducted joint assessments across more than one sector. Improvements in future air quality effects on human health are seen in emission reduction scenarios that are more ambitious than current legislation. Larger impacts result from changing particulate matter (PM) abundances than ozone burdens. Future global health burdens are dominated by changes in the Asian region. Expected future reductions in ozone outside of Asia will allow for increased crop production. Reductions in PM, although associated with much higher uncertainty, could offset some of this benefit. The responses of ecosystems to air pollution and climate change are long-term, complex, and interactive, and vary widely across biomes and over space and time. Air quality and climate policy should be linked or at least considered holistically, and managed as a multi-media problem. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘Air quality, past present and future’.

中文翻译：

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未来空气质量对人类健康、农作物和生态系统的影响将如何变化？


未来的空气质量将受到空气污染物排放变化和气候变化的影响。在此，我们回顾了有关未来空气质量情景以及对人类健康、农作物和生态系统影响的预计变化的最新文献。虽然用于预测未来空气质量和气候对人类健康和农作物影响的情景和模型存在重叠，但生态系统尚未广泛开展类似的工作。很少有研究对多个部门进行联合评估。未来空气质量对人类健康影响的改善可以在比现行立法更加雄心勃勃的减排方案中看到。颗粒物 (PM) 丰度变化所产生的影响比臭氧负担更大。未来全球健康负担主要由亚洲地区的变化决定。预计未来亚洲以外的臭氧减少将有助于增加农作物产量。颗粒物的减少虽然会带来更高的不确定性，但可能会抵消部分好处。生态系统对空气污染和气候变化的反应是长期、复杂和互动的，并且在不同生物群落、空间和时间上差异很大。空气质量和气候政策应联系起来或至少整体考虑，并作为多媒体问题进行管理。本文是“空气质量，过去、现在和未来”讨论会议的一部分。