Why we should care about movements: Using spatially explicit integrated population models to assess habitat source‐sink dynamics,Journal of Animal Ecology

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Why we should care about movements: Using spatially explicit integrated population models to assess habitat source‐sink dynamics
Journal of Animal Ecology ( IF 3.5 ) Pub Date : 2020-10-20 , DOI: 10.1111/1365-2656.13357
Matthieu Paquet ₁ , Debora Arlt _{1,

2} , Jonas Knape ₁ , Matthew Low ₁ , Pär Forslund ₁ , Tomas Pärt ₁

Affiliation

Abstract Assessing the source–sink status of populations and habitats is of major importance for understanding population dynamics and for the management of natural populations. Sources produce a net surplus of individuals (per capita contribution to the metapopulation > 1) and will be the main contributors for self‐sustaining populations, whereas sinks produce a deficit (contribution < 1). However, making these types of assessments is generally hindered by the problem of separating mortality from permanent emigration, especially when survival probabilities as well as moved distances are habitat‐specific. To address this long‐standing issue, we propose a spatial multi‐event integrated population model (IPM) that incorporates habitat‐specific dispersal distances of individuals. Using information about local movements, this IPM adjusts survival estimates for emigration outside the study area. Analysing 24 years of data on a farmland passerine (the northern wheatear Oenanthe oenanthe), we assessed habitat‐specific contributions, and hence the source–sink status and temporal variation of two key breeding habitats, while accounting for habitat‐ and sex‐specific local dispersal distances of juveniles and adults. We then examined the sensitivity of the source–sink analysis by comparing results with and without accounting for these local movements. Estimates of first‐year survival, and consequently habitat‐specific contributions, were higher when local movement data were included. The consequences from including movement data were sex specific, with contribution shifting from sink to likely source in one habitat for males, and previously noted habitat differences for females disappearing. Assessing the source–sink status of habitats is extremely challenging. We show that our spatial IPM accounting for local movements can reduce biases in estimates of the contribution by different habitats, and thus reduce the overestimation of the occurrence of sink habitats. This approach allows combining all available data on demographic rates and movements, which will allow better assessment of source–sink dynamics and better informed conservation interventions.

中文翻译：

为什么我们应该关心运动：使用空间明确的综合种群模型来评估栖息地源汇动态

摘要评估种群和栖息地的源汇状况对于了解种群动态和自然种群管理具有重要意义。源产生个人的净盈余（对综合种群的人均贡献> 1），并将成为自给人口的主要贡献者，而汇产生赤字（贡献< 1）。然而，进行这些类型的评估通常受到将死亡率与永久移民区分开来的问题的阻碍，特别是当生存概率和移动距离是特定于栖息地时。为了解决这个长期存在的问题，我们提出了一种空间多事件综合种群模型（IPM），该模型结合了个体特定栖息地的分散距离。使用有关当地运动的信息，该 IPM 调整了研究区域外移民的生存估计。通过分析 24 年来关于农田雀形目（北方小麦年 Oenanthe oenanthe）的数据，我们评估了特定栖息地的贡献，从而评估了两个主要繁殖栖息地的源汇状态和时间变化，同时考虑了特定栖息地和性别的当地青少年和成年人的分散距离。然后，我们通过比较考虑和不考虑这些局部运动的结果来检查源汇分析的敏感性。当包括当地运动数据时，对第一年生存率的估计以及因此对栖息地的特定贡献更高。包含运动数据的后果是性别特定的，在男性的一个栖息地中，贡献从汇转移到可能的来源，并且之前注意到雌性消失的栖息地差异。评估栖息地的源汇状况极具挑战性。我们表明，我们对局部运动的空间 IPM 可以减少对不同栖息地贡献的估计偏差，从而减少对汇栖息地发生的高估。这种方法允许结合所有可用的人口比率和流动数据，这将有助于更好地评估源汇动态和更明智的保护干预措施。

更新日期：2020-10-20

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