Abstract

Computer models used to predict forest and fuels dynamics and wildfire behavior inform decisionmaking in contexts such as postdisturbance management. It is imperative to understand possible uncertainty in model predictions. We evaluated sensitivity of the Fire and Fuels Extension to the Forest Vegetation Simulator predictions to parameters that determine dynamics of standing dead trees (snags) and surface woody fuels. Predicted peak coarse and fine woody fuels were not sensitive to the decomposition rate of snags but were sensitive to decomposition rate of surface fuels regardless of initial snag density. Predictions of coarse woody fuel were sensitive to the snag fall rate when there was a higher initial density of snags. Fire behavior predictions were most sensitive to whether stylized fuel models or modeled fuels were used in calculations. When modeled fuels were used, fire behavior predictions were sensitive to the decomposition rate of surface fuels. Although this analysis does not inform the accuracy of model predictions, it does show where there is potential uncertainty in predictions of woody fuels succession and associated fire behavior. It is likely that any model that predicts postdisturbance fuel succession will also be sensitive to parameters that control snag dynamics and fuel decomposition.

中文翻译：

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野火后木质燃料继承和燃烧行为的模型预测对燃料动力学参数敏感

摘要

用于预测森林和燃料动态以及野火行为的计算机模型可在事后管理等情况下为决策提供依据。必须了解模型预测中可能存在的不确定性。我们评估了“火和燃料扩展”对“森林植被模拟器”预测的敏感性，以决定确定死木（断枝）和地面木质燃料动态的参数。预测的峰值粗，细木本燃料对障碍物的分解速率不敏感，但对表面燃料的分解率不敏感，而与初始障碍物密度无关。当粗粒的初始密度较高时，粗木质燃料的预测对粗粒下降率敏感。火灾行为预测对于计算中使用的是程式化燃料模型还是模拟燃料最为敏感。当使用模拟燃料时，火灾行为的预测对地面燃料的分解速率很敏感。尽管这种分析并不能说明模型预测的准确性，但它确实显示了木质燃料演替和相关火灾行为的预测中存在潜在不确定性的地方。预测扰动后燃料继承的任何模型也可能对控制障碍动态和燃料分解的参数敏感。