Abstract Global change represents the greatest challenge facing forest managers today. The uncertainty and variability of potential future impacts of shifting climatic and disturbance regimes has led resource managers to seek out alternative approaches to sustain the long-term delivery of forest ecosystem services. We use a spatially explicit forest landscape simulation model, LANDIS-II, to examine and evaluate a range of long-term effects of current and adaptive forest management under three projected climate scenarios within a forested landscape in southeastern Vermont, USA. We found that land-use legacies and the inertia associated with long-term forest successional trajectories are likely to be the dominant driver of future forest composition and biomass conditions for the next 100 years. Nevertheless, climate is projected to have a greater influence on species composition and aboveground biomass over the next 200 years. Eastern hemlock (Tsuga canadensis) and red spruce (Picea rubens) are likely to experience reductions in aboveground biomass and a compression of relative dominance on the landscape. American beech (Fagus grandifolia) and sugar maple (Acer saccharum) are projected to persist within the landscape and are likely to continue to occupy a prominent compositional position in the forests of this region. Extreme climate warming under RCP 8.5 projections resulted in compositional shifts and reductions in landscape-scale aboveground biomass (120.09 ± 4.51 M g · h a - 1 ) at the end of the 200 year simulation when compared to RCP 4.5 (150.55 ± 1.04 M g · h a - 1 ) and current climate projections (147.90 ± 0.79 M g · h a - 1 ). These findings highlight the expected lag effects of a changing climate, which present significant challenges and opportunities as managers seek to sustain critical ecosystem services in the region.

中文翻译：

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美国佛蒙特州东南部气候变化和适应性森林管理下的未来森林构成

摘要 全球变化是当今森林管理者面临的最大挑战。不断变化的气候和干扰机制对未来潜在影响的不确定性和可变性促使资源管理者寻找替代方法来维持长期提供森林生态系统服务。我们使用空间明确的森林景观模拟模型 LANDIS-II，在美国佛蒙特州东南部森林景观的三个预测气候情景下，检查和评估当前和适应性森林管理的一系列长期影响。我们发现，土地利用遗产和与长期森林演替轨迹相关的惯性很可能是未来 100 年未来森林组成和生物量状况的主要驱动力。尽管如此，预计未来 200 年气候将对物种组成和地上生物量产生更大的影响。东部铁杉 (Tsuga canadensis) 和红云杉 (Picea rubens) 可能会经历地上生物量的减少和景观中相对优势的压缩。美国山毛榉（Fagus grandifolia）和糖槭（Acer saccharum）预计将继续存在于景观中，并可能继续在该地区的森林中占据突出的组成位置。与 RCP 4.5 (150.55 ± 1.04 M g · 1 ) 相比，RCP 8.5 预测下的极端气候变暖导致 200 年模拟结束时景观尺度地上生物量 (120.09 ± 4.51 M g · ha - 1 ) 的成分变化和减少ha - 1 ) 和当前气候预测 (147.90 ± 0.79 M g · ha - 1 )。