Abstract Aphids are economically important wind-borne crop pests worldwide. Forecasting invasions poses the challenge of modelling both the terrestrial and aerial portions of their life cycle in temporally-variable, spatially-heterogeneous environments. Within the context of area-wide pest management, modelling migrations is particularly problematic. We present a series of thought experiments, using sugarcane aphids (Melanaphis sacchari) as a test case, in which we ponder the relative importance of accurate forecasting of magnitudes of migrations and initial infestations versus accurate forecasting of timing of initial infestations. Our results indicate the latter is more important. Within the context of area-wide pest management programs, this suggests improvement in forecasting models for windborne pests most likely will come from increased emphasis on the aeroecological portion of the pest life cycle.

中文翻译：

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所有的蚜虫都去哪儿了？大面积病虫害管理背景下的一系列思想实验

摘要 蚜虫是世界范围内经济上重要的风媒作物害虫。预测入侵带来了在时间可变、空间异质的环境中对其生命周期的陆地和空中部分进行建模的挑战。在大面积虫害管理的背景下，对迁移进行建模尤其成问题。我们提出了一系列思想实验，使用甘蔗蚜虫 (Melanaphis sacchari) 作为测试案例，在其中我们思考准确预测迁移和初始侵染的幅度与准确预测初始侵染时间的相对重要性。我们的结果表明后者更为重要。在大面积虫害管理计划的背景下，