From the practice of tourism industry, many scenic spots emphasize emergency rescue and ignore risk prevention in safety management.From the perspective of research, a large number of literatures focus on the emergency management of scenic spots, and lack the concept and method of systematic risk management. This research puts forward the natural disaster risk assessment method in tourist area by the introduction and development of the concept of scenario analysis technique.This method relies on GIS(Geographic Information System) and RS(Remote Sensing) technology to simulate typical natural disaster risk scenarios in the scenic area in the future, and establish the corresponding relationship between the intensity of typical hazards and disaster risk scenarios. Further, it classifies tourism resources and tourist facilities, analyze the characteristics of the time and space distribution of tourists and residents in the scenic area, and establish the corresponding relationship between the intensity of hazard factors and the vulnerability of the scenic area’s bearer; finally, by fitting the risk curve, establish a comprehensive disaster loss model for the scenic area and predict the amount Scenario average annual loss.Taking the Jiuzhaigou Tree Zhengjing Group as an example, simulate the velocity, flow and impact of debris flow caused by six torrential rain scenarios in Jiuzhaigou in 20, 50, 100, 200, 500, and 1000 years, and establish six scenarios of debris flow and trees. The vulnerability of the Zhengjing Group; predict potential losses and casualties in six scenarios; combined with acceptable risks, propose future natural disaster prevention and risk reduction measures for Jiuzhaigou Shuzhengzhai.

从旅游业的实践来看，许多景区在安全管理中都强调紧急救援而忽视风险防范。从研究的角度来看，大量文献关注景区的应急管理，缺乏系统性风险的概念和方法。管理。通过介绍和发展情景分析技术的概念，提出了旅游区自然灾害风险评估方法。该方法依靠GIS（地理信息系统）和RS（遥感）技术模拟典型的自然灾害风险情景。在未来风景名胜区，建立典型灾害强度与灾害风险情景之间的对应关系。此外，它还对旅游资源和旅游设施进行了分类，分析风景名胜区游客和居民的时空分布特征，建立危险因素强度与风景名胜区承载力之间的对应关系；最后，通过拟合风险曲线，建立风景名胜区综合灾害损失模型，并预测情景平均年损失量。以九寨沟树正井组为例，模拟了六种泥石流的速度，流量和影响。九寨沟20、50、100、200、500和1000年的暴雨情景，建立了6种泥石流和树木情景。正经集团的脆弱性；预测六种情况下的潜在损失和人员伤亡；加上可接受的风险，