Climate change introduces an uncertain risk to power plant operations as ambient conditions potentially constrain generation through thermodynamic limitations. Previous studies aiming to quantify this risk have suggested a wide range of results, from minimal to disastrous capacity loss. In this analysis, we used a power plant modeling tool to study how a variety of power plant configurations respond to varying meteorological conditions. We developed tools that enable the analysis of the climate impacts on power plant operations for a spectrum of geographic situations and technological configurations. We also used these tools to conduct a case study for US coal and natural gas power plants in 2050, under climate change scenario representative concentration pathway 4.5. Our study indicates that rising air temperatures are unlikely to seriously threaten capacity and efficiency at power plants at most locations, provided that wet recirculating and dry cooling systems are designed adequately. Our results allow for simpler modeling of power plant capacity deratings given ambient conditions, highlight potential regions of risk, and underscore the importance of incorporating climate factors into the electric power system’s design and planning.

中文翻译：

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气候变化下的化石燃料发电厂运营

气候变化给电厂运行带来了不确定的风险，因为环境条件可能通过热力学限制限制发电。以前旨在量化这种风险的研究表明，结果范围很广，从最小到灾难性的容量损失。在此分析中，我们使用发电厂建模工具来研究各种发电厂配置如何响应不同的气象条件。我们开发了工具，可以分析气候对发电厂运营的一系列地理情况和技术配置的影响。我们还使用这些工具在气候变化情景代表性浓度路径 4.5 下对 2050 年美国煤炭和天然气发电厂进行了案例研究。我们的研究表明，只要湿式再循环和干式冷却系统设计得当，气温上升不太可能严重威胁大多数地方发电厂的容量和效率。我们的结果允许在给定环境条件下对发电厂容量降额进行更简单的建模，突出潜在的风险区域，并强调将气候因素纳入电力系统设计和规划的重要性。