The rate of M≥3 earthquakes associated with hydraulic fracturing (HF) in horizontal wells (HF wells) in the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin is estimated for the period from 2009 to 2019. The estimates are based on a statistical discrimination algorithm that uses an objective scoring function deduced from the observed spatiotemporal correlations between wells and earthquakes. A Monte Carlo simulation approach is used to test the efficacy of the scoring function in determining noncoincidental association rates, allowing for correction of the observed association rates for the expected number of false positives. The basin‐wide average rate of association of M≥3 earthquakes with HF wells (2009–2019) is ∼0.8% on a per well basis. The susceptibility appears to vary by formation by more than an order of magnitude, ranging from ∼6% for HF wells in the Duvernay Formation to ∼0.07% for HF wells in the Cardium Formation. For some formations, there has been no observed association at the M≥3 level to date, but this does not necessarily imply that such formations are immune to induced seismicity.

中文翻译：

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加拿大西部沉积盆地水力压裂井的地震激活率

对加拿大西部沉积盆地水平井（HF井）中水力压裂（HF）相关的M≥3级地震的发生率进行了估算，估算时间为2009年至2019年。该估算基于使用目标的统计判别算法从观测到的井与地震之间的时空相关性推导出评分函数。蒙特卡罗模拟方法用于测试评分函数在确定非偶然关联率时的功效，从而可以针对预期的假阳性数校正观察到的关联率。在整个盆地，M≥3地震与HF井的平均关联率（2009-2019年）约为每口井约0.8％。磁化率似乎因地层而变化超过一个数量级，从Duvernay组的HF井的〜6％到Cardium组的HF井的〜0.07％不等。迄今为止，对于某些地层，在M≥3的水平上还没有观察到关联，但这并不一定意味着这种地层不受诱发的地震作用的影响。