Phenological asynchrony: a ticking time-bomb for seemingly stable populations?,Ecology Letters

当前位置： X-MOL 学术 › Ecol. Lett. › 论文详情

Our official English website, www.x-mol.net, welcomes your feedback! (Note: you will need to create a separate account there.)

Phenological asynchrony: a ticking time-bomb for seemingly stable populations?
Ecology Letters ( IF 7.6 ) Pub Date : 2020-09-25 , DOI: 10.1111/ele.13603
Emily G Simmonds _{1,

2} , Ella F Cole ₁ , Ben C Sheldon ₁ , Tim Coulson ₁

Affiliation

Climate change has been shown to induce shifts in the timing of life‐history events. As a result, interactions between species can become disrupted, with potentially detrimental effects. Predicting these consequences has proven challenging. We apply structured population models to a well‐characterised great tit‐caterpillar model system and identify thresholds of temporal asynchrony, beyond which the predator population will rapidly go extinct. Our model suggests that phenotypic plasticity in predator breeding timing initially maintains temporal synchrony in the face of environmental change. However, under projections of climate change, predator plasticity was insufficient to keep pace with prey phenology. Directional evolution then accelerated, but could not prevent mismatch. Once predator phenology lagged behind prey by more than 24 days, rapid extinction was inevitable, despite previously stable population dynamics. Our projections suggest that current population stability could be masking a route to population collapse, if high greenhouse gas emissions continue.

中文翻译：

物候异步：看似稳定种群的定时炸弹？

气候变化已被证明会导致生活史事件发生时间的变化。结果，物种之间的相互作用可能会被破坏，并可能产生有害影响。事实证明，预测这些后果具有挑战性。我们将结构化种群模型应用于特征良好的大山雀毛毛虫模型系统，并确定时间异步的阈值，超过该阈值捕食者种群将迅速灭绝。我们的模型表明，捕食者繁殖时间的表型可塑性最初在面对环境变化时保持时间同步。然而，根据气候变化的预测，捕食者的可塑性不足以跟上猎物物候学的步伐。方向演变随后加速，但无法防止失配。一旦捕食者物候落后于猎物超过 24 天，尽管以前的人口动态稳定，但迅速灭绝是不可避免的。我们的预测表明，如果温室气体排放量继续居高不下，当前的人口稳定性可能会掩盖人口崩溃的途径。

更新日期：2020-11-12

点击分享查看原文

点击收藏

公开下载

阅读更多本刊最新论文本刊介绍/投稿指南11