Population viability analysis (PVA) utilizes simulation models to project the genetic and demographic trajectories of populations over time. One benefit to using PVA to assist in ex situ population planning is the ability to compare outcomes from multiple management scenarios. Reproductive viability analysis (RVA), used to identify biological and reproductive characteristics of animals in breeding pairs that correlate with successful reproduction, is also beneficial, informing population managers on best practices for population planning. Our objectives were to: (1) compare genetic and demographic predictions for the managed North American ex situ fennec fox population from two PVA programs: Vortex and ZooRisk; (2) show how RVA results can be incorporated into PVAs in Vortex and how that affects PVA projections; and (3) perform a sensitivity analysis to investigate how uncertainty in the influence of factors on the reproductive success of fennec fox pairs affects variation in population projections. In this study, the relative and average genetic and demographic predictions were generally the same across both software programs when given similar inputs. The inclusion of factors that influence breeding success (RVA) in the PVA models resulted in a lower probability of extinction, less inbreeding accumulation, and slower loss of genetic diversity, due to an overall higher rate of reproductive success. The uncertainty in the negative effects of increasing female and male age, and the positive effect of female parity on reproductive success had the greatest effect on projected genetic diversity and inbreeding. Our study demonstrates that Vortex is capable of projecting the viability of ex situ populations with flexibility, and has the ability to incorporate complexity and uncertainty into population parameters. It also reveals that adjusting ex situ population management, more specifically the consideration of factors affecting reproductive success to create breeding pairs with a higher probability of success, will improve population sustainability.

中文翻译：

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纳入生殖成功的驱动因素可改善种群生存力分析

种群生存力分析 (PVA) 利用模拟模型来预测种群随时间的遗传和人口发展轨迹。使用 PVA 协助异地人口规划的一个好处是能够比较多种管理方案的结果。繁殖活力分析 (RVA) 用于识别与成功繁殖相关的繁殖对中动物的生物学和繁殖特征，它也很有用，可以为种群管理人员提供有关种群规划的最佳实践的信息。我们的目标是： (1) 比较来自两个 PVA 项目：Vortex 和 ZooRisk 的受管理的北美非原生境狐狸种群的遗传和人口统计预测；(2) 展示如何将 RVA 结果合并到 Vortex 中的 PVA 中，以及这如何影响 PVA 预测；(3) 进行敏感性分析，以研究对耳廓狐对繁殖成功的影响因素的不确定性如何影响种群预测的变化。在这项研究中，当给出相似的输入时，两个软件程序的相对和平均遗传和人口统计预测通常是相同的。由于繁殖成功率总体较高，在 PVA 模型中包含影响育种成功 (RVA) 的因素导致灭绝概率较低，近亲繁殖积累较少，遗传多样性损失较慢。女性和男性年龄增加的负面影响的不确定性，以及女性胎次对繁殖成功的积极影响，对预计的遗传多样性和近亲繁殖的影响最大。我们的研究表明，Vortex 能够灵活地预测异地种群的生存能力，并且能够将复杂性和不确定性纳入种群参数。它还表明，调整异地种群管理，更具体地说，考虑影响繁殖成功的因素以创建具有更高成功概率的繁殖对，将提高种群的可持续性。