Abstract Despite the progress in sustainable development strategies, the role of the Amazon rainforest as a carbon sink faces increasing disturbances that may have a critical impact on global climate. Understanding the vulnerability of the Amazon rainforest to climate change is a major challenge, considering the complex interaction between human and natural systems. This paper aims, via an interdisciplinary approach, to assess the observed evolution and possible future of the Amazon rainforest, considering different global climate and socio-economic scenarios. By comparing historical with plausible future developments, we present key knowledge to inform mitigation and regional adaptation policy considerations. As an entry point, historical trends of annual mean temperature and precipitation were analysed. In a second step, the same assessment was made for the mean annual NDVI sum (a proxy of yearly plant productivity), representing vegetation strength. For these purposes, a 34-year period (1982–2015) was considered. Trends were analysed based on non-parametric Mann-Kendall and Sen's methods. With this representation of the past, the next step focused on future scenarios. The most plausible global emission pathways were evaluated via the comparison of ten assessments of the possible effects of the mitigation action plans of national governments, as stated in the National Determined Contributions (NDCs). Results indicate a strong consensus that if either current policies, unconditional or conditional NDCs are fulfilled, the limit of global warming by “well below 2 °C" will be exceeded. In this context, climate projections for the Amazon suggest, among other results, an increase in the range of 1.3 °C (lower limit under SSP1-2.6) to 6.5 °C (upper limit under SSP5-8.5). Unlike temperature, positive and negative anomalies are expected for precipitation depending on location. Despite the uncertainty regarding the projections, possible changes such as forest diebacks and savannization may take place, namely in southeastern Amazon, by the end of the century. Overall, this study highlights the importance of carefully considering the combination of different factors, such as deforestation, to guarantee rainforest resilience under climate-driven changes.

中文翻译：

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不断变化的亚马逊雨林：后巴黎气候情景下的历史趋势和未来预测

摘要 尽管可持续发展战略取得了进展，但亚马逊雨林作为碳汇的作用面临着越来越多的干扰，这些干扰可能对全球气候产生重大影响。考虑到人类与自然系统之间复杂的相互作用，了解亚马逊雨林对气候变化的脆弱性是一项重大挑战。考虑到不同的全球气候和社会经济情景，本文旨在通过跨学科方法评估亚马逊热带雨林的观测演变和可能的未来。通过比较历史和可能的未来发展，我们提供了关键知识，为缓解和区域适应政策考虑提供信息。作为切入点，分析了年平均气温和降水的历史趋势。第二步，对代表植被强度的年平均 NDVI 总和（年植物生产力的代表）进行了相同的评估。出于这些目的，考虑了 34 年（1982-2015 年）。基于非参数 Mann-Kendall 和 Sen 的方法分析趋势。有了这种过去的表现形式，下一步就专注于未来的情景。如国家自主贡献 (NDC) 中所述，通过比较各国政府减缓行动计划可能产生的影响的十项评估，对最合理的全球排放途径进行了评估。结果表明，一个强烈的共识是，如果当前的政策、无条件或有条件的 NDC 得到满足，将超过全球变暖“远低于 2°C”的极限。在这种情况下，亚马逊的气候预测表明，在其他结果中，增加了 1.3 °C（SSP1-2.6 下的下限）至 6.5 °C（SSP5-8.5 下的上限）。与温度不同，根据位置，预计降水会出现正异常和负异常。尽管预测存在不确定性，但到本世纪末，可能会发生森林枯死和热带草原化等可能的变化，即亚马逊东南部。总体而言，这项研究强调了仔细考虑不同因素（例如森林砍伐）的组合以确保气候驱动变化下雨林恢复力的重要性。尽管预测存在不确定性，但到本世纪末，可能会发生森林枯死和热带草原化等可能的变化，即亚马逊东南部。总体而言，这项研究强调了仔细考虑不同因素（例如森林砍伐）的组合以确保气候驱动变化下雨林恢复力的重要性。尽管预测存在不确定性，但到本世纪末，可能会发生森林枯死和热带草原化等可能的变化，即亚马逊东南部。总体而言，这项研究强调了仔细考虑不同因素（例如森林砍伐）的组合以确保气候驱动变化下雨林恢复力的重要性。