Abstract Over-prediction of subsidence levels of mined land may be an issue for getting mining approval and tighter conditions in some places can be imposed to better inform mining operations and planning. Under-prediction of subsidence, present safety, social and environmental consequences during or after longwall extractions have occurred. In this study we collected subsidence data from reports related to underground coal mining environmental impact statements (EIS) and end of panel reports, and compared predicted subsidence data with the observed data to compare the accuracy of prediction. From the limited data, while it was difficult to substantiate a strong relationship between the predicted and observed subsidence data and mining characteristics, we found that where mining is less than 220 m below the surface subsidence prediction generally matches well with the observed subsidence and the ratio is closer to 1 than those mined at greater depths. Subsidence prediction analysed for mines in the Gunnedah Basin are found to be generally better than those in the Sydney Basin. The results presented here are based on limited data available in the public domain and while more data is needed to prove or disprove the discussed hypotheses, we consider there to be value in extending EIS requirements. Importantly, publication of both prediction and observed subsidence measurements would provide suitable transparency for improved, future predictions, and to provide social and stakeholder assurances that would meet growing legislative requirements.

中文翻译：

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澳大利亚的沉降预测与观测：简短评论

摘要 过度预测开采土地的沉降水平可能是获得采矿批准的一个问题，并且可以在某些地方施加更严格的条件以更好地为采矿作业和规划提供信息。在长壁开采期间或之后，对沉降、当前安全、社会和环境后果的预测不足。在这项研究中，我们从与地下采煤环境影响报告 (EIS) 相关的报告和小组报告的结尾收集了沉降数据，并将预测的沉降数据与观测数据进行了比较，以比较预测的准确性。从有限的数据来看，虽然很难证实预测和观察到的沉降数据与采矿特征之间的强关系，我们发现，在地表下沉小于 220 m 的地方，地表下沉预测通常与观测到的下沉匹配得很好，并且该比率比在更大深度开采的那些更接近于 1。对冈尼达盆地矿山的沉降预测分析发现，总体上比悉尼盆地的要好。此处提供的结果基于公共领域可用的有限数据，虽然需要更多数据来证明或反驳所讨论的假设，但我们认为扩展 EIS 要求是有价值的。重要的是，预测和观察到的沉降测量值的发布将为改进的未来预测提供适当的透明度，并提供满足不断增长的立法要求的社会和利益相关者保证。