Abstract Given the long lifespan of buildings it becomes inevitable to assess the impact of climate change when designing building envelopes or retrofitting solutions. Hygrothermal simulations would benefit from using a climate ensemble to account for the large uncertainties that come with modelled climate data. However, this has been rarely done so far, and no state-of-the-art methodology exists to implement ensemble data in hygrothermal simulations. This paper presents the application of a Canadian initial-condition ensemble CanRCM4 LE in hygrothermal (HAM) modelling. A brick-clad wood-stud wall assembly and historical solid masonry wall, before and after retrofitting, are analysed for Ottawa, CA. Variations in the HAM model are studied to evaluate whether the ensemble can be represented by one smaller “reduced” ensemble for different studies. And, the potential of climate-based indices to predict this “reduced” ensemble is studied. Further, the uncertainty of the ensemble is analysed, as well as the climate change signal of the damage functions. It is found that the application of a climate ensemble is highly valuable for HAM modelling, as it is able to account for the high uncertainty of climate change data. To maintain the level of information, it is recommended to perform HAM simulations using the entire ensemble. However, there is potential to select a “reduced” ensemble to represent spread of the climate change signal.

中文翻译：

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加拿大初始条件气候集合：木钉和翻新历史砖石的湿热模拟

摘要 鉴于建筑物的使用寿命长，在设计建筑围护结构或改造解决方案时，不可避免地要评估气候变化的影响。湿热模拟将受益于使用气候系综来解释模拟气候数据带来的巨大不确定性。然而，到目前为止很少这样做，并且不存在在湿热模拟中实现集合数据的最先进的方法。本文介绍了加拿大初始条件集合 CanRCM4 LE 在湿热 (HAM) 建模中的应用。分析了加利福尼亚州渥太华的砖包木钉墙组件和历史悠久的实心砖墙，在改造前后。研究了 HAM 模型的变化，以评估合奏是否可以用一个较小的“简化”合奏来表示，用于不同的研究。并且，研究了基于气候的指数预测这种“减少”的集合的潜力。此外，还分析了集合的不确定性，以及损害函数的气候变化信号。发现气候集合的应用对于 HAM 建模非常有价值，因为它能够解释气候变化数据的高度不确定性。为了保持信息水平，建议使用整个集合执行 HAM 模拟。然而，有可能选择一个“减少”的集合来代表气候变化信号的传播。发现气候集合的应用对于 HAM 建模非常有价值，因为它能够解释气候变化数据的高度不确定性。为了保持信息水平，建议使用整个集合执行 HAM 模拟。然而，有可能选择一个“减少”的集合来代表气候变化信号的传播。发现气候集合的应用对于 HAM 建模非常有价值，因为它能够解释气候变化数据的高度不确定性。为了保持信息水平，建议使用整个集合执行 HAM 模拟。然而，有可能选择一个“减少”的集合来代表气候变化信号的传播。