Abstract Large carnivores are recolonizing areas of their historical range in Europe. This process has strong implications for conservation and management related to human-wildlife conflicts. Analyses and modelling of the observed mechanisms of spatial expansion can predict recolonization patterns under human influences. We demonstrate how spatially-explicit, agent-based models can assist to identify and predict how humans impact shape large carnivore recolonizations. Using detailed data obtained through long-term surveillance of wolf territories, we identified the mechanisms of recolonization and predicted the spatio-temporal patterns of expansion of the wolf in the Scandinavian Peninsula. We disentangled the observed mechanisms of expansion to develop WolVES (Wolf Virtual Expansion Simulator), an agent-based model software. We applied the model to investigate in silico the observed lack of wolf recolonization into the suitable but densely human-populated area of southern Sweden and projected the expansion into the future. We tested the impact of traffic barriers and territory termination (wolf mortality most likely due to culling and poaching) on the observed recolonization in the south. Simulations identified that traffic infrastructures impacted only at configurations of insurmountable barriers unlikely to occur in Scandinavia, while low rates of territory termination had a major impact on the recolonization. Simulating until 2030 predicts that wolves will not colonize southern Sweden, which highlights the complexities of this process in areas of increased human-influence. The capability of simulators to test hypotheses and discriminate constraints of future population development makes them a valuable tool for ecologists, managers, and decision-makers involved in regional and transboundary conservation challenges of large carnivore recolonizations.

中文翻译：

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基于代理的模型预测模式并识别大型食肉动物重新定殖的限制，斯堪的纳维亚狼的案例研究

摘要 大型食肉动物正在欧洲其历史范围内重新殖民。这一过程对与人类与野生动物冲突有关的保护和管理具有重要意义。对观察到的空间扩张机制的分析和建模可以预测人类影响下的重新殖民模式。我们展示了空间明确的、基于代理的模型如何帮助识别和预测人类如何影响大型食肉动物重新定殖。使用通过长期监视狼领土获得的详细数据，我们确定了重新殖民化的机制，并预测了斯堪的纳维亚半岛狼扩张的时空模式。我们解开观察到的扩展机制，以开发基于代理的模型软件 WolVES（Wolf Virtual Expansion Simulator）。我们应用该模型对观察到的狼在瑞典南部适宜但人口稠密的地区重新定居的情况进行了计算机模拟调查，并预测了未来的扩张。我们测试了交通障碍和领土终止（狼死亡很可能是由于扑杀和偷猎）对南部观察到的重新殖民化的影响。模拟表明，交通基础设施仅对斯堪的纳维亚不太可能发生的难以逾越的障碍配置产生影响，而低的领土终止率对重新殖民化产生了重大影响。模拟到 2030 年预测狼不会在瑞典南部殖民，这突显了这一过程在人类影响增加的地区的复杂性。