INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVE Several prediction models for falls/near falls in Parkinson's disease (PD) have been proposed. However, longitudinal predictors of frequency of falls/near falls are poorly investigated. Therefore, we aimed to identify short- and long-term predictors of the number of falls/near falls in PD. METHODS A prospective cohort of 58 persons with PD was assessed at baseline (mean age and PD duration, 65 and 3.2 years, respectively) and 3.5 years later. Potential predictors were history of falls and near falls, comfortable gait speed, freezing of gate, dyskinesia, retropulsion, tandem gait (TG), pain, and cognition (Mini-Mental State Exam, MMSE). After each assessment, the participants registered a number of falls/near falls during the following 6 months. Multivariate Poisson regression was used to identify short- and long-term predictors of a number of falls/near falls. RESULTS Baseline median (q1-q3) motor (UPDRS) and MMSE scores were 10 (6.75-14) and 28.5 (27-29), respectively. History of falls was the only significant short-time predictor [incidence rate ratio (IRR), 15.17] for the number of falls/near falls during 6 months following baseline. Abnormal TG (IRR, 3.77) and lower MMSE scores (IRR, 1.17) were short-term predictors 3.5 years later. Abnormal TG (IRR, 7.79) and lower MMSE scores (IRR, 1.49) at baseline were long-term predictors of the number of falls/near falls 3.5 years later. CONCLUSION Abnormal TG and MMSE scores predict the number of falls/near falls in short and long term, and may be indicative of disease progression. Our observations provide important additions to the evidence base for clinical fall prediction in PD.

中文翻译：

---

帕金森病跌倒和接近跌倒频率的纵向预测：一项前瞻性队列研究。

介绍和目标 已经提出了几种帕金森病 (PD) 跌倒/接近跌倒的预测模型。然而，跌倒/接近跌倒频率的纵向预测因素研究很少。因此，我们旨在确定 PD 跌倒/接近跌倒次数的短期和长期预测因素。方法 在基线（平均年龄和 PD 持续时间分别为 65 和 3.2 年）和 3.5 年后评估了 58 名 PD 患者的前瞻性队列。潜在的预测因素是跌倒和接近跌倒的历史、舒适的步态速度、门冻结、运动障碍、后退、串联步态（TG）、疼痛和认知（简易精神状态检查，MMSE）。每次评估后，参与者在接下来的 6 个月内记录了多次跌倒/接近跌倒的情况。多变量泊松回归被用于确定许多跌倒/接近跌倒的短期和长期预测因素。结果 基线中位数 (q1-q3) 运动 (UPDRS) 和 MMSE 评分分别为 10 (6.75-14) 和 28.5 (27-29)。跌倒史是基线后 6 个月内跌倒/接近跌倒次数的唯一重要短时预测因子 [发生率比 (IRR)，15.17]。异常 TG（IRR，3.77）和较低的 MMSE 评分（IRR，1.17）是 3.5 年后的短期预测因子。基线时异常 TG（IRR，7.79）和较低的 MMSE 评分（IRR，1.49）是 3.5 年后跌倒/接近跌倒次数的长期预测因子。结论 异常的 TG 和 MMSE 评分可预测短期和长期跌倒/接近跌倒的次数，并可能预示疾病进展。