BACKGROUND Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and asthma exacerbations are associated with ill health, increased mortality, and health care costs. However, there is limited evidence regarding mortality and its predictors among patients treated for COPD and asthma exacerbations in low-income nations, particularly in Ethiopia. METHODS A-6 month prospective observational study was conducted from April 20-September 20, 2019. Data were collected on socio-demographic, baseline clinical characteristics and outcomes of asthma and COPD exacerbations. Data were entered into Epi-Data version 4.02.01 for cleaning and exported to STATA 14.0 for analysis. Kaplan-Meier (Log-rank test) was used to compare the baseline survival experience of the study participants and Cox proportional hazard regression analysis was conducted to determine the predictors of mortality. Adjusted hazard ratios (AHRs) with two-sided p-value <0.05 were considered statistically significant. RESULTS A total of 130 patients (60% males) were included. The median (interquartile range (IQR)) age of the study participants was 59(50-70) years. The median (IQR) survival time to death was 17.5 (10-26) days. The total proportion of in-hospital mortality was 10.78% (14/130), and the incidence rate of mortality was 2.56 per 1000 person-years. The duration of oxygen therapy ≥16hours/day (AHR = 6.330, 95% CI [1.092-36.679], and old age (AHR = 1.066, 95% CI [1.0001-1.136] were the independent predictors of in-hospital mortality. CONCLUSION In this study, the in-hospital mortality rate was very high. Moreover, prolonged oxygen therapy (≥16hours/day) and old age were independently associated with in-hospital mortality. Therefore, special attention should be given to recipients of prolonged oxygen therapy and the elderly during hospital stay.

中文翻译：

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吉马医学中心治疗慢性阻塞性呼吸道疾病急性发作的患者的死亡率及其预测因素；埃塞俄比亚吉马：前瞻性观察研究。

背景技术慢性阻塞性肺疾病（COPD）和哮喘加重与健康不良，死亡率增加和医疗费用有关。但是，在低收入国家（尤其是埃塞俄比亚），接受COPD和哮喘加重治疗的患者中，有关死亡率及其预测因素的证据有限。方法自2019年4月20日至9月20日进行为期6个月的前瞻性观察研究。该研究收集了有关社会人口统计学，基线临床特征以及哮喘和COPD加重预后的数据。数据输入Epi-Data版本4.02.01进行清洁，然后导出到STATA 14.0进行分析。使用Kaplan-Meier（对数秩检验）比较研究参与者的基线生存经验，并进行Cox比例风险回归分析以确定死亡率的预测因子。双向P值<0.05的调整后的危险比（AHR）被认为具有统计学意义。结果总共包括130名患者（男性占60％）。研究参与者的中位年龄（四分位间距（IQR））为59（50-70）岁。到死亡的中位（IQR）生存时间为17.5（10-26）天。院内死亡率的总比例为10.78％（14/130），死亡率为每千人年2.56。氧疗的持续时间≥16小时/天（AHR = 6.330，95％CI [1.092-36.679]）和老年（AHR = 1.066，95％CI [1.0001-1.136]）是院内死亡率的独立预测因子。结论在这项研究中，住院死亡率很高。此外，延长的氧疗（≥16小时/天）和高龄与院内死亡率独立相关。因此，在住院期间应特别注意接受长期氧气治疗的患者和老年人。