Family formation in the United States has changed dramatically: marriage has become less common, nonmarital cohabitation has become more common, and racial and economic inequalities in these experiences have increased. We provide insights into recent U.S. trends by presenting cohort estimates for people born between 1970 and 1997, who began forming unions between 1985 and 2015. Using Panel Study of Income Dynamics data, we find that typical ages at marriage and union formation increased faster across these recent cohorts than across cohorts born between 1940 and 1969. As fewer people married at young ages, more cohabited, but the substitution was incomplete. We project steep declines in the probability of ever marrying, declines that are larger among Black people than White people. We provide novel information on the intergenerational nature of family inequalities by measuring parental income, wealth, education, and occupational prestige. Marriage declines are particularly steep among people from low-income backgrounds. Black people are overrepresented in this low-income group because of discrimination and opportunity denial. However, marriage declines are larger among Black people than White people across parental incomes. Further, most racial differences in marriage occur among people from similar socioeconomic backgrounds. Family inequalities increasingly reflect both economic inequalities and broader racial inequalities generated by racist structures; in turn, family inequalities may prolong these other inequalities across generations.

中文翻译：

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美国的婚姻和联盟形成：跨种族群体和经济背景的最新趋势。


美国的家庭结构发生了巨大的变化：婚姻变得不那么常见，非婚同居变得更加普遍，而这些经历中的种族和经济不平等现象也有所增加。我们通过对 1970 至 1997 年间出生、1985 至 2015 年间开始组建婚姻的人群进行队列估计，深入了解美国近期的趋势。利用收入动态数据小组研究，我们发现这些人群的典型结婚年龄和组建婚姻年龄增长更快。近期出生的人群与 1940 年至 1969 年之间出生的人群相比。由于年轻结婚的人较少，同居的人较多，但替代并不完全。我们预计结婚的可能性会急剧下降，黑人的下降幅度比白人更大。我们通过衡量父母的收入、财富、教育和职业声望，提供有关家庭不平等代际性质的新颖信息。低收入背景人群的结婚率下降尤其严重。由于歧视和机会被剥夺，黑人在这个低收入群体中所占比例过高。然而，就父母收入而言，黑人的婚姻下降幅度比白人更大。此外，婚姻中的大多数种族差异发生在具有相似社会经济背景的人之间。家庭不平等日益反映出经济不平等和种族主义结构造成的更广泛的种族不平等；反过来，家庭不平等可能会在几代人之间延续这些其他不平等。