In order to prevent and control the emergence of biosecurity threats such as vector-borne diseases of plants, it is vital to understand drivers of entry, establishment, and spatiotemporal spread, as well as the form, timing, and effectiveness of disease management strategies. An inherent challenge for policy in combatting emerging disease is the uncertainty associated with intervention planning in areas not yet affected, based on models and data from current outbreaks. Following the recent high-profile emergence of the bacterium Xylella fastidiosa in a number of European countries, we review the most pertinent epidemiological uncertainties concerning the dynamics of this bacterium in novel environments. To reduce the considerable ecological and socio-economic impacts of these outbreaks, eco-epidemiological research in a broader range of environmental conditions needs to be conducted and used to inform policy to enhance disease risk assessment, and support successful policy-making decisions. By characterizing infection pathways, we can highlight the uncertainties that surround our knowledge of this disease, drawing attention to how these are amplified when trying to predict and manage outbreaks in currently unaffected locations. To help guide future research and decision-making processes, we invited experts in different fields of plant pathology to identify data to prioritize when developing pest risk assessments. Our analysis revealed that epidemiological uncertainty is mainly driven by the large variety of hosts, vectors, and bacterial strains, leading to a range of different epidemiological characteristics further magnified by novel environmental conditions. These results offer new insights on how eco-epidemiological analyses can enhance understanding of plant disease spread and support management recommendations.

Copyright © 2020 The Author(s). This is an open access article distributed under the CC BY 4.0 International license.

为了预防和控制诸如植物媒介传播的疾病等生物安全威胁的出现，至关重要的是了解进入，建立和时空传播的驱动因素，以及疾病管理策略的形式，时机和有效性。根据当前疫情的模型和数据，与新兴疾病作斗争的政策固有的挑战是与尚未规划的地区进行干预计划有关的不确定性。继最近出现的木杆菌Xidiella fastidiosa在许多欧洲国家中，我们回顾了有关该细菌在新型环境中的动力学的最相关的流行病学不确定性。为减少这些暴发对生态和社会经济造成的重大影响，需要在更广泛的环境条件下进行生态流行病学研究，并将其用于指导政策，以增强疾病风险评估并支持成功的决策制定。通过表征感染途径，我们可以突出我们对该疾病知识的不确定性，从而提请人们注意在尝试预测和管理当前未受影响地区的暴发时如何扩大这些不确定性。为了帮助指导未来的研究和决策流程，我们邀请了植物病理学不同领域的专家来确定数据，以便在进行虫害风险评估时确定优先顺序。我们的分析表明，流行病学的不确定性主要是由宿主，媒介和细菌菌株的种类繁多所致，导致一系列不同的流行病学特征被新的环境条件进一步放大。这些结果提供了关于生态流行病学分析如何增进对植物病害传播的理解并支持管理建议的新见解。

版权所有©2020作者。这是在CC BY 4.0 International许可下分发的开放访问文章。