In recent years, a debate on the technological sources of the next long wave of growth has emerged. In this context, some authors consider that health-related industries will be more likely to generate new technological systems than defense-related industries, which have entered a stage of technological maturity (Ruttan 2006; Steinbock 2014; among others). Based on evolutionary works, in this paper we state that technological systems are characterized by a high degree of technological relatedness, which is positively associated with the possibility of a system to generate variety through the recombination of knowledge from a common base. Following this statement, this work aims to analyze technological relatedness between defense (and health) technological system(s) and other groups of products to compare their variety patterns. Based on international trade data (a panel for 60 countries and 17 years), and different measures of proximity and relatedness (e.g. sectoral competitiveness of countries), we compare defense and health technological systems regarding their potential of generating related variety through two main methods: network analysis and econometrical analysis. The main results support Ruttan’s hypothesis. The network analysis shows the potential for both systems to generate related variety, but higher centrality indicators for health products. In line with that, competitiveness in health products presents a stronger correlation with competitiveness in other groups of products, both related and high and medium technology. This suggests that an improvement in countries’ competitiveness in health sectors can generate spillovers on other related sectors, which can strengthen structural competitiveness and sustain long-term growth.

中文翻译：

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国防和卫生技术系统的多样性模式：来自国际贸易数据的证据。


近年来，出现了关于下一波长波增长的技术来源的争论。在这种背景下，一些作者认为，与已进入技术成熟阶段的国防相关产业相比，健康相关产业更有可能产生新的技术系统（Ruttan 2006；Steinbock 2014 等）。基于进化论的著作，在本文中，我们指出技术系统的特点是高度的技术相关性，这与系统通过公共基础知识重组产生多样性的可能性呈正相关。根据这一声明，这项工作旨在分析国防（和卫生）技术系统与其他产品组之间的技术相关性，以比较其品种模式。根据国际贸易数据（涵盖 60 个国家和 17 年的数据）以及不同的邻近性和相关性衡量标准（例如国家的部门竞争力），我们通过两种主要方法比较国防和卫生技术系统产生相关多样性的潜力：网络分析和计量经济分析。主要结果支持拉坦的假设。网络分析显示，两个系统都有可能产生相关的品种，但健康产品的中心性指标更高。与此相一致，保健产品的竞争力与其他产品组（相关产品和高中技术产品）的竞争力具有更强的相关性。这表明，国家卫生部门竞争力的提高可以对其他相关部门产生溢出效应，从而增强结构竞争力并维持长期增长。