Social‐distancing restrictions and health‐ and economic‐driven demand shifts from COVID‐19 are expected to shutter many small businesses and entrepreneurial ventures, but there is very little early evidence on impacts. This paper provides the first analysis of impacts of the pandemic on the number of active small businesses in the United States using nationally representative data from the April 2020 Current Population Survey—the first month fully capturing early effects. The number of active business owners in the United States plummeted by 3.3 million or 22% over the crucial 2‐month window from February to April 2020. The drop in active business owners was the largest on record, and losses to business activity were felt across nearly all industries. African‐American businesses were hit especially hard experiencing a 41% drop in business activity. Latinx business owner activity fell by 32%, and Asian business owner activity dropped by 26%. Simulations indicate that industry compositions partly placed these groups at a higher risk of business activity losses. Immigrant business owners experienced substantial losses in business activity of 36%. Female business owners were also disproportionately affected (25% drop in business activity). Continuing the analysis in May and June, the number of active business owners remained low—down by 15% and 8%, respectively. The continued losses in May and June, and partial rebounds from April were felt across all demographic groups and most industries. These findings of early‐stage losses to small business activity have important implications for policy, income losses, and future economic inequality.

中文翻译：

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COVID-19 对小企业主的影响：广泛实施社交距离限制后前 3 个月的证据。


COVID-19 带来的社交距离限制以及健康和经济驱动的需求转变预计将使许多小企业和创业企业倒闭，但关于影响的早期证据很少。本文使用 2020 年 4 月当前人口调查（全面捕捉早期影响的第一个月）的全国代表性数据，首次分析了这一流行病对美国活跃小企业数量的影响。在 2020 年 2 月至 4 月的关键两个月时间内，美国活跃企业主数量锐减 330 万，即 22%。活跃企业主降幅创有记录以来之最，商业活动损失遍及全球。几乎所有行业。非裔美国企业受到的打击尤其严重，商业活动下降了 41%。拉丁裔企业主活动下降 32%，亚洲企业主活动下降 26%。模拟表明，行业构成在一定程度上使这些群体面临更高的商业活动损失风险。移民企业主的商业活动遭受了 36% 的重大损失。女性企业主也受到了不成比例的影响（商业活动下降了 25%）。继续分析 5 月和 6 月，活跃企业主数量仍然较低，分别下降了 15% 和 8%。所有人口群体和大多数行业都感受到了 5 月和 6 月的持续下跌以及 4 月以来的部分反弹。这些关于小企业活动早期损失的发现对政策、收入损失和未来的经济不平等具有重要影响。