Objectives

The objective of this study is to test whether recorded rates of violent crime declined in the context of social distancing regulations in Queensland, Australia.

Methods

ARIMA modeling was used to compute 6-month-ahead forecasts of rates for common assault, serious assault, sexual offenses, and breaches of domestic violence orders. These forecasts (and their 95% confidence intervals) are compared to the observed data for March and April 2020.

Results

By the end of April, 2020, rates of common, serious, and sexual assault had declined to their lowest level in a number of years. For serious assault and sexual assault, the decline was beyond statistical expectations. The rate at which domestic violence orders were breached remained unchanged.

Conclusions

Social distancing regulations are temporally correlated with reductions in some violent crimes. Social distancing is likely to have significantly limited interpersonal interaction, especially in locations and at times when violence is usually prevalent.

中文翻译：

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澳大利亚昆士兰州的 COVID-19 和社会疏离措施与记录的暴力犯罪的短期减少有关

目标

本研究的目的是测试记录在案的暴力犯罪率是否在澳大利亚昆士兰州实行社会疏离规定的情况下有所下降。

方法

ARIMA 模型用于计算 6 个月前对普通攻击、严重攻击、性犯罪和违反家庭暴力令的比率的预测。这些预测（及其 95% 置信区间）与 2020 年 3 月和 4 月的观测数据进行了比较。

结果

到 2020 年 4 月末，普通、严重和性侵犯的发生率已降至多年来的最低水平。对于严重的攻击和性攻击，下降超出了统计预期。违反家庭暴力令的比率保持不变。

结论

社会疏离规定与一些暴力犯罪的减少在时间上相关。社交距离可能会显着限制人际互动，尤其是在暴力通常普遍存在的地点和时间。