Abstract Soil temperature is a key factor of plant growth and biological enzyme activities occurring in the soil, affected by the land cover, the evapotranspiration rate, the albedo, and the energy budget of the soil surface. In recent decades, efforts have been made to conserve soils against nonsustainable anthropogenic pressures. Changes in climate can impose additional threats on soil sustainability, as global scale soil temperature regime alterations are expected under global warming. Here, data from three well-established global climate models, spanning from 1981 to as far as 2120, are used to force the JULES (Joint UK Land Environment Simulator) model and produce simulations of soil temperature, calculating the water and energy budgets of the land surface. Modeled soil temperature data are used to estimate the climate-induced changes in the global soil temperature regimes at three different global warming levels. The results show significant shifts in the soil temperature regime for extended areas of the world, especially in the northern hemisphere. Pergelic and Cryic areas are reduced, whereas the Mesic and Thermic soils gain large areas in all three studied scenarios. Implications of the warming patterns might indicate the northward shift of various croplands in regions that until now their cultivation was not possible.

中文翻译：

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气候引起的全球土壤温度变化

摘要 土壤温度是影响土壤中植物生长和生物酶活性的关键因素，受土地覆盖、蒸散率、反照率和土壤表层能量收支的影响。近几十年来，人们努力保护土壤以抵御不可持续的人为压力。气候变化可能对土壤可持续性造成额外威胁，因为在全球变暖的情况下预计全球范围的土壤温度状况会发生变化。在这里，来自三个完善的全球气候模型（从 1981 年到 2120 年）的数据用于强制使用 JULES（联合英国土地环境模拟器）模型并生成土壤温度模拟，计算水和能源预算地表。模拟土壤温度数据用于估计在三个不同的全球变暖水平下全球土壤温度状况的气候引起的变化。结果表明，世界大部分地区的土壤温度状况发生了显着变化，尤其是在北半球。Pergelic 和 Cryic 区域减少，而 Mesic 和 Thermic 土壤在所有三个研究场景中获得大面积。变暖模式的含义可能表明，在迄今为止无法耕种的地区，各种农田向北移动。而 Mesic 和 Thermic 土壤在所有三个研究场景中都获得了大面积。变暖模式的含义可能表明，在迄今为止无法耕种的地区，各种农田向北移动。而 Mesic 和 Thermic 土壤在所有三个研究场景中都获得了大面积。变暖模式的含义可能表明，在迄今为止无法耕种的地区，各种农田向北移动。