Abstract. Countries in south-eastern Europe are cooperating to conserve a sub-endemic lynx species, Lynx lynx martinoi. Yet, the planning of species conservation should go hand-in-hand with the planning and management of (new) protected areas. Lynx lynx martinoi has a small, fragmented distribution with a small total population size and an endangered population. This study combines species distribution modelling with spatial prioritisation techniques to identify conservation areas for Lynx lynx martinoi. The aim was to determine locations of high probability of occurrence for the lynx, to potentially increase current protected areas by 20 % in Albania, the former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, Montenegro, and Kosovo. The species distribution modelling used generalised linear models with lynx occurrence and pseudo-absence data. Two models were developed and fitted using the lynx data: one based on natural factors, and the second based on factors associated with human disturbance. The Zonation conservation planning software was then used to undertake spatial prioritisations of the landscape using the first model composed of natural factors as a biological feature, and (inverted) a second model composed of anthropological factors such as a cost layer. The first model included environmental factors as elevation, terrain ruggedness index, woodland and shrub land, and food factor as chamois prey (occurrences) and had a prediction accuracy of 82 %. Second model included anthropological factors as agricultural land and had a prediction accuracy of 65 %. Prioritised areas for extending protected areas for lynx conservation were found primarily in the Albania–Macedonia–Kosovo and Montenegro–Albania–Kosovo cross-border areas. We show how natural and human factors can be incorporated into spatially prioritising conservation areas on a landscape level. Our results show the importance of expanding the existing protected areas in cross-border areas of core lynx habitat. The priority of these cross-border areas highlight the importance international cooperation can play in designing and implementing a coherent and long-term conservation plan including a species conservation plan to securing the future of the lynx.

中文翻译：

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在<i>Lynx lynx martinoi</i>的栖息地建模和空间优先排序中结合自然和人为因素

摘要。东南欧国家正在合作保护亚地方性猞猁物种 Lynx lynx martinoi。然而，物种保护的规划应与（新）保护区的规划和管理齐头并进。Lynx lynx martinoi 分布小、分散，总种群规模小，种群濒临灭绝。本研究将物种分布建模与空间优先排序技术相结合，以确定猞猁猞猁的保护区。目的是确定猞猁发生的高概率位置，以将阿尔巴尼亚、前南斯拉夫的马其顿共和国、黑山和科索沃的现有保护区扩大 20%。物种分布建模使用具有lynx发生和伪缺失数据的广义线性模型。使用 lynx 数据开发和拟合了两种模型：一种基于自然因素，另一种基于与人为干扰相关的因素。然后使用分区保护规划软件对景观进行空间优先排序，使用由自然因素作为生物特征组成的第一个模型，以及（倒置）由人类学因素（如成本层）组成的第二个模型。第一个模型包括环境因素如海拔、地形崎岖指数、林地和灌木地，以及食物因素作为羚羊猎物（发生），预测准确率为 82%。第二个模型包括人类学因素作为农业用地，预测准确率为 65%。主要在阿尔巴尼亚-马其顿-科索沃和黑山-阿尔巴尼亚-科索沃跨境地区发现了优先扩展保护区以保护猞猁的地区。我们展示了如何将自然和人为因素纳入景观层面的空间优先保护区。我们的研究结果表明，在核心猞猁栖息地的跨境地区扩大现有保护区的重要性。这些跨境地区的优先事项凸显了国际合作在设计和实施连贯的长期保护计划（包括保护猞猁未来的物种保护计划）方面的重要性。我们的研究结果表明，在核心猞猁栖息地的跨境地区扩大现有保护区的重要性。这些跨境地区的优先事项凸显了国际合作在设计和实施连贯的长期保护计划（包括保护猞猁未来的物种保护计划）方面的重要性。我们的研究结果表明，在核心猞猁栖息地的跨境地区扩大现有保护区的重要性。这些跨境地区的优先事项凸显了国际合作在设计和实施连贯的长期保护计划（包括保护猞猁未来的物种保护计划）方面的重要性。