High Mountain Asia (HMA), which includes the Tibetan Plateau, Tienshan Mountains and surrounding region, has abundant snowfall and a long period of snow cover annually. The headwaters of many prominent Asian rivers depend in part on HMA meltwater. In this study, we evaluate projected changes in mean snowfall (Smean), snowfall days (Sd), and snowfall fraction (Sf) for the years 2070–2099 relative to 1976–2005, under the Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) and 8.5 (RCP8.5) emission scenarios. An evaluation of the results shows that while NASA’s NEX-GDDP (National Aeronautics and Space Administration Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections) high-resolution daily downscaled dataset can successfully capture the distribution of mean snowfall climatology, it has a strong bias for extreme snowfall indices. In general, the projected increase of temperature under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5—especially in winter—will result in a decrease in snowfall amount (−18.9%, −32.8%), ...

中文翻译：

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基于NASA NEX-GDDP高分辨率每日降尺度数据集的亚洲高山降雪变化评估和预测

亚洲的高山（HMA）包括青藏高原，天山山脉及周边地区，每年降雪量大，积雪时间长。亚洲许多重要河流的源头部分依赖HMA融水。在这项研究中，我们评估了代表性浓度途径4.5（RCP4.5）下相对于1976-2005年2070-2099年的平均降雪量（Smean），降雪天数（Sd）和降雪分数（Sf）的预测变化。和8.5（RCP8.5）排放情景。对结果的评估表明，尽管NASA的NEX-GDDP（美国国家航空航天局地球交换全球每日按比例缩小投影）高分辨率逐日按比例缩小的数据集可以成功捕获平均降雪气候的分布，但它对极端降雪指数存在强烈偏见。一般来说，