Multi-hazard assessment is needed to understand compound risk. Yet, modelling of multiple climate hazards has been limitedly applied at the global scale to date. Here we provide a first comprehensive assessment of global population exposure to hydro-meteorological extremes—floods, drought and heatwaves—under different temperature increase targets. This study shows how limiting temperature increase to 1.5 and 2 °C, as for the goals of the Paris Agreement, could substantially decrease the share of global population exposed compared to a 3 °C scenario. In a 2 °C world, population exposure would drop by more than 50%, in Africa, Asia and the Americas, and by about 40% in Europe and Oceania. A 1.5 °C stabilization would further reduce exposure of about an additional 10% to 30% across the globe. As the Parties of the Paris Agreement are expected to communicate new or updated nationally determined contributions by 2020, our results powerfully indicate the benefits of ratcheting up both...

中文翻译：

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“《巴黎协定》会保护我们免受极端水文气象的影响吗？”

需要进行多危害评估以了解复合风险。然而，迄今为止，多种气候危害的建模在全球范围内的应用有限。在这里，我们提供了在不同温度升高目标下，全球人口在极端洪水，干旱和热浪等水文气象极端条件下的综合评估。这项研究表明，与《巴黎协定》的目标相比，按照《巴黎协定》的目标将温度限制在1.5和2°C之间，如何能够大幅减少全球人口所占的比例。在2°C的世界中，非洲，亚洲和美洲的人口暴露将下降50％以上，而欧洲和大洋洲的人口暴露将下降约40％。1.5°C的稳定水平将进一步减少全球约10％至30％的暴露。