Abstract The Paris Climate Agreement has motivated commercial organisations to set and work towards Science Based Targets, a realignment of greenhouse gas emissions in line with climate science. This work presents a modelling framework to develop cost-effective decarbonisation investment programs that address electricity and heat carbon emissions in organisations with multiple properties. The case study takes a set of 60 supermarkets in the UK and evaluates the techno-economic viability of installing biomethane combined heat and power engines and photovoltaic panels to make them zero carbon buildings. Simulation results from the batch of buildings offer the financial and environmental benefits at each site and generates a set of regression coefficients which are then applied into an optimisation problem. Solving the optimisation yields the decarbonisation investment strategy for the estate up to 2050; indicating the preferred sequence of investments the company needs to undertake to embark upon an effective low-carbon roadmap. A sensitivity analysis compliments the study to understand how market and policy externalities may influence roadmaps. Results suggest a CAPEX ranging from £57-£80 million is required to deliver an ambitious decarbonisation plan, while OPEX and carbon savings benefits range between £197 and £683 million and 461–715 ktCO2e; respectively. The case study highlights that although carbon targets can be achieved by 2030, the 2050 targets are more challenging to meet; suggesting additional technologies and policies should be considered and implemented. The framework serves as a blueprint of how modelling can assist decision-makers in reducing their carbon footprint cost-effectively to reach Science Based Targets.

中文翻译：

---

制定低碳路线图投资策略，以实现具有多地点资产的商业组织的科学目标

摘要 《巴黎气候协定》激励商业组织制定并努力实现基于科学的目标，根据气候科学重新调整温室气体排放。这项工作提出了一个建模框架，以开发具有成本效益的脱碳投资计划，以解决具有多种资产的组织的电力和热力碳排放问题。该案例研究对英国的 60 家超市进行了评估，评估了安装生物甲烷热电联产发动机和光伏电池板以使其成为零碳建筑的技术经济可行性。这批建筑物的模拟结果提供了每个站点的财务和环境效益，并生成了一组回归系数，然后将其应用于优化问题。解决优化产生2050年房地产脱碳投资策略；表明公司需要进行的首选投资顺序，以开始有效的低碳路线图。敏感性分析补充了这项研究，以了解市场和政策的外部性如何影响路线图。结果表明，实现雄心勃勃的脱碳计划需要 57-8000 万英镑的资本支出，而 OPEX 和碳节约收益在 197-6.83 亿英镑和 461-715 ktCO2e 之间；分别。案例研究强调，尽管到 2030 年可以实现碳目标，但要实现 2050 年的目标更具挑战性；建议应考虑和实施额外的技术和政策。