Uncertain SEIAR model for COVID-19 cases in China,Fuzzy Optimization and Decision Making

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Uncertain SEIAR model for COVID-19 cases in China
Fuzzy Optimization and Decision Making ( IF 4.7 ) Pub Date : 2020-09-24 , DOI: 10.1007/s10700-020-09341-w
Lifen Jia , Wei Chen

The Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Asymptomatic-Removed (SEIAR) epidemic model is one of most frequently used epidemic models. As an application of uncertain differential equations to epidemiology, an uncertain SEIAR model is derived which considers the human uncertainty factors during the spread of an epidemic. The parameters in the uncertain epidemic model are estimated with the numbers of COVID-19 cases in China, and a prediction to the possible numbers of active cases is made based on the estimates.

更新日期：2020-09-24

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