Aphids are a major global wheat pest that can cause considerable loss of yield. Modeling of aphid population dynamics is an integral part of management strategies to manage or control aphid populations. In this paper, first, a wheat aphid population dynamics model was developed based on a logistic model and the Holling III functional response, which includes three factors: temperature, natural enemies and insecticide. Second, this model fitted with a cusp catastrophe model to describe how abrupt changes in the wheat aphid population were influenced by these factors. Finally, the system was validated with field data from 2016 to 2018. The bifurcation set of the cusp catastrophe model was deemed to be the quantified dynamic control threshold, so an outbreak of aphid’s population can be explained according to the variation of control variables. In short, this aphid population model was successfully validated on survey data, which can be used to guide the prevention and control of aphids.

中文翻译：

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基于尖点突变理论的小麦蚜虫种群动态模型的建立

蚜虫是一种主要的全球小麦害虫，可导致严重的产量损失。蚜虫种群动态建模是管理或控制蚜虫种群的管理策略的一个组成部分。本文首先建立了基于logistic模型和Holling III函数响应的小麦蚜虫种群动态模型，该模型包括温度、天敌和杀虫剂三个因素。其次，该模型配备了一个尖点突变模型来描述小麦蚜虫种群的突然变化如何受到这些因素的影响。最后，利用2016-2018年的野外数据对系统进行了验证。将尖点突变模型的分岔集视为量化的动态控制阈值，因此可以根据控制变量的变化来解释蚜虫种群的爆发。