Background and objective

India contributes a major share of global unintended births. It is established that contraception plays a significant role in preventing unintended pregnancies, maternal mortality and induced abortion. In this study, to analyze the effectiveness of our family welfare program, we tried to give district-level estimates of number of births averted due to contraception.

Data and methods

Data for this study came from the cross-sectional, population-based data from the fourth round of National Family Health Survey (NFHS-4) conducted in 2015–16. Here, we discussed two methods based on robust regression for computing number of births averted at district level. Further, we analyzed the percentage increase in births (PIB) that would be experienced by each district in the absence of contraception.

Results

Findings of this study clearly showed that there was a huge variation in the estimates of number of births averted among different districts as well as states of India. Out of 640 districts, 315 districts achieved below-replacement fertility and 365 districts have contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR) more than 50 percent. Method 1 found around 22 percent districts showed less than 15 percent reduction in births while Method 2 suggested nearly 14 percent districts predominantly located in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Arunachal Pradesh, Meghalaya and Manipur exhibited less than 30 percent reduction of births due to use of all forms of contraception. At all India level, an average estimate obtained by two methods, nearly 63 million births would have been averted by the use of contraception or 40 percent more than the number of births occurred during that period.

Conclusion

The study successfully identified the districts that were not performing well at the front of utilization of various family planning methods for birth control. To achieve objectives of National Population Policy (2000), poor-performing districts must be monitored like the government keeps monitoring of Aspirational districts.

中文翻译：

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印度因计划生育而避免出生的分类分析：NFHS-4（2015-16）的证据。

背景和目标

印度在全球意外出生中占很大份额。已经确定避孕在预防意外怀孕，产妇死亡率和人工流产中起重要作用。在这项研究中，为了分析我们的家庭福利计划的有效性，我们试图对因避孕而避免的分娩数进行区级估计。

数据与方法

这项研究的数据来自于2015-16年度进行的第四轮全国家庭健康调查（NFHS-4）的基于人群的横断面数据。在这里，我们讨论了基于稳健回归的两种方法来计算在地区一级避免的出生人数。此外，我们分析了在没有避孕的情况下每个地区可能经历的出生百分比增长（PIB）。

结果

这项研究的结果清楚地表明，不同地区和印度各州所避免的出生人数估算值之间存在巨大差异。在640个地区中，有315个地区的生育率低于最高水平，而365个地区的避孕普及率（CPR）超过50％。方法1发现约22％的地区的出生率下降了不到15％，而方法2表明，主要位于北方邦，比哈尔邦，贾坎德邦，阿鲁纳恰尔邦，梅加拉亚邦和曼尼普尔邦的近14％的地区由于使用而导致的出生率下降了不到30％所有形式的避孕 在整个印度一级，通过两种方法得出的平均估算值：

结论

该研究成功地确定了在利用各种计划生育方法进行节育工作方面表现不佳的地区。为了实现《国家人口政策》（2000年）的目标，必须对表现欠佳的地区进行监控，就像政府不断监控理想地区一样。