The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is the most severe global health and socioeconomic crisis of our time, and represents the greatest challenge faced by the world since the end of the Second World War. The academic literature indicates that climatic features, specifically temperature and absolute humidity, are very important factors affecting infectious pulmonary disease epidemics - such as severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS); however, the influence of climatic parameters on COVID-19 remains extremely controversial. The goal of this study is to individuate relationships between several climate parameters (temperature, relative humidity, accumulated precipitation, solar radiation, evaporation, and wind direction and intensity), local morphological parameters, and new daily positive swabs for COVID-19, which represents the only parameter that can be statistically used to quantify the pandemic. The daily deaths parameter was not considered, because it is not reliable, due to frequent administrative errors. Daily data on meteorological conditions and new cases of COVID-19 were collected for the Lombardy Region (Northern Italy) from 1 March, 2020 to 20 April, 2020. This region exhibited the largest rate of official deaths in the world, with a value of approximately 1700 per million on 30 June 2020. Moreover, the apparent lethality was approximately 17% in this area, mainly due to the considerable housing density and the extensive presence of industrial and craft areas. Both the Mann–Kendall test and multivariate statistical analysis showed that none of the considered climatic variables exhibited statistically significant relationships with the epidemiological evolution of COVID-19, at least during spring months in temperate subcontinental climate areas, with the exception of solar radiation, which was directly related and showed an otherwise low explained variability of approximately 20%. Furthermore, the average temperatures of two highly representative meteorological stations of Molise and Lucania (Southern Italy), the most weakly affected by the pandemic, were approximately 1.5 °C lower than those in Bergamo and Brescia (Lombardy), again confirming that a significant relationship between the increase in temperature and decrease in virulence from COVID-19 is not evident, at least in Italy.

中文翻译：

---

伦巴第大区（意大利北部）COVID19与气候，形态和城市化之间的关系的初步分析

2019年冠状病毒病（COVID-19）大流行是我们时代最严重的全球健康和社会经济危机，是自第二次世界大战结束以来世界面临的最大挑战。学术文献表明，气候特征，特别是温度和绝对湿度，是影响传染性肺病流行的非常重要的因素-例如严重急性呼吸道综合症（SARS）和中东呼吸综合症（MERS）；但是，气候参数对COVID-19的影响仍然存在极大争议。这项研究的目的是区分几种气候参数（温度，相对湿度，累积降水，太阳辐射，蒸发，风向和强度），局部形态参数之间的关系，以及新的COVID-19每日阳性拭子，这是唯一可以统计地用来量化大流行的参数。由于频繁的管理错误，因此不考虑每日死亡参数，因为它不可靠。从2020年3月1日至2020年4月20日，收集了伦巴第大区（意大利北部）的气象条件和COVID-19新病例的每日数据。该地区的官方死亡人数是世界上最大的，到2020年6月30日，这一数字约为百万分之1700。此外，该地区的表观致死率约为17％，这主要是由于相当大的住房密度以及广泛存在的工业和手工艺地区。Mann-Kendall检验和多变量统计分析均表明，至少在春季，在温带次大陆性气候区，除了太阳辐射外，所有考虑到的气候变量均未与COVID-19的流行病学演变呈现统计学上显着的关系。直接相关，并显示出大约20％的较低解释变异性。此外，受大流行影响最弱的莫利塞和卢卡尼亚（意大利南部）的两个具有高度代表性的气象站的平均温度比贝加莫和布雷西亚（伦巴第）的平均温度低约1.5°C，再次证实了这一重要关系至少在意大利，温度升高和COVID-19致病性降低之间的关系并不明显。