1. The woolly poplar aphid Phloeomyzus passerinii Signoret (Aphididae: Phloeomyzinae) is a major pest of poplar plantations. We hypothesized that recent temperature increases may have contributed to the emergence and subsequent northward expansion of outbreaks in France.
2. We reared P. passerinii at four temperatures to estimate its thermal requirements. We used experimental data to parametrize a mechanistic and temperature‐driven physiologically‐based demographic model. The model was used to simulate the effect of temperature on aphid dynamics and to assess the role of climate warming on the spatiotemporal dynamics of outbreaks.
3. The lower developmental threshold was estimated at 6.4 °C and the development degree‐days at 171.
4. Our model supports the hypothesis that recent warming may have promoted outbreaks in northern France. During recent exceptionally warm years, more than 70% of the northern poplar area was favourable for outbreaks.
5. Our model suggests that climate warming is not the sole factor involved. The dominance of resistant poplar genotypes such as ‘Robusta’ or ‘Beaupré’ may have preserved plantations from outbreaks before 1996 in southern France and until 2000 in the central part. Other factors, including biological characteristics, biotic interactions, or precipitation should be investigated.

中文翻译：

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利用种群参数的空间外推法解读气候变暖对新出现的杨树有害生物的影响

1. 毛状杨树蚜虫Phloeomyzus passerinii Signoret（Aphididae：Phloeomyzinae）是杨树人工林的主要害虫。我们假设最近的气温升高可能是导致法国暴发的发生和随后向北扩展的原因。
2. 我们在四个温度下饲养过山雀疟原虫，以估算其热需求。我们使用实验数据对机制和温度驱动的基于生理的人口统计学模型进行参数化。该模型用于模拟温度对蚜虫动态的影响，并评估气候变暖对暴发时空动态的作用。
3. 较低的发育阈值估计为6.4°C，发育天数为171。
4. 我们的模型支持以下假设：最近的变暖可能促进了法国北部的爆发。在最近异常温暖的几年中，北部杨树地区超过70％的面积适合爆发。
5. 我们的模型表明，气候变暖并不是唯一的因素。抗性杨树基因型（如“ Robusta”或“Beaupré”）的优势地位可能使种植园在1996年前的法国南部和中部的2000年之前免于暴发。应该研究其他因素，包括生物学特性，生物相互作用或沉淀。