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Transient benefits of climate change for a high-Arctic polar bear (Ursus maritimus) subpopulation.
Global Change Biology ( IF 10.8 ) Pub Date : 2020-09-23 , DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15286 Kristin L Laidre 1, 2 , Stephen N Atkinson 3 , Eric V Regehr 1 , Harry L Stern 1 , Erik W Born 2 , Øystein Wiig 4 , Nicholas J Lunn 5 , Markus Dyck 3 , Patrick Heagerty 6 , Benjamin R Cohen 1
Global Change Biology ( IF 10.8 ) Pub Date : 2020-09-23 , DOI: 10.1111/gcb.15286 Kristin L Laidre 1, 2 , Stephen N Atkinson 3 , Eric V Regehr 1 , Harry L Stern 1 , Erik W Born 2 , Øystein Wiig 4 , Nicholas J Lunn 5 , Markus Dyck 3 , Patrick Heagerty 6 , Benjamin R Cohen 1
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Kane Basin (KB) is one of the world's most northerly polar bear (Ursus maritimus) subpopulations, where bears have historically inhabited a mix of thick multiyear and annual sea ice year‐round. Currently, KB is transitioning to a seasonally ice‐free region because of climate change. This ecological shift has been hypothesized to benefit polar bears in the near‐term due to thinner ice with increased biological production, although this has not been demonstrated empirically. We assess sea‐ice changes in KB together with changes in polar bear movements, seasonal ranges, body condition, and reproductive metrics obtained from capture–recapture (physical and genetic) and satellite telemetry studies during two study periods (1993–1997 and 2012–2016). The annual cycle of sea‐ice habitat in KB shifted from a year‐round ice platform (~50% coverage in summer) in the 1990s to nearly complete melt‐out in summer (<5% coverage) in the 2010s. The mean duration between sea‐ice retreat and advance increased from 109 to 160 days (p = .004). Between the 1990s and 2010s, adult female (AF) seasonal ranges more than doubled in spring and summer and were significantly larger in all months. Body condition scores improved for all ages and both sexes. Mean litter sizes of cubs‐of‐the‐year (C0s) and yearlings (C1s), and the number of C1s per AF, did not change between decades. The date of spring sea‐ice retreat in the previous year was positively correlated with C1 litter size, suggesting smaller litters following years with earlier sea‐ice breakup. Our study provides evidence for range expansion, improved body condition, and stable reproductive performance in the KB polar bear subpopulation. These changes, together with a likely increasing subpopulation abundance, may reflect the shift from thick, multiyear ice to thinner, seasonal ice with higher biological productivity. The duration of these benefits is unknown because, under unmitigated climate change, continued sea‐ice loss is expected to eventually have negative demographic and ecological effects on all polar bears.
中文翻译：
气候变化对北极北极熊（Ursus maritimus）亚种群的短暂好处。
凯恩盆地（KB）是世界上最偏北的北极熊（Ursus maritimus））亚种群，历来都是多年生熊和多年生海冰的混合体。当前，由于气候变化，KB正在过渡到季节性无冰地区。据推测，由于冰稀薄和生物产量增加，这种生态转变将在短期内使北极熊受益，尽管这一经验尚未得到证实。我们评估了两个研究时期（1993-1997年和2012-2012年）从捕获-捕获（物理和遗传）和卫星遥测研究获得的KB值的海冰变化以及北极熊的运动，季节性范围，身体状况和生殖指标的变化。 2016）。KB的海冰栖息地的年周期从1990年代的全年冰平台（夏季约50％覆盖）转变为夏季几乎完全融化（< 5％）。从海冰撤退到前进的平均时间从109天增加到160天（p = .004）。在1990年代至2010年代之间，成年女性（AF）的春季和夏季季节范围增加了一倍以上，并且在所有月份中均显着增大。所有年龄段和男女的身体状况得分均得到改善。幼崽的平均产仔数（C0s）和一岁鸽（C1s）以及每个AF的C1数量在数十年间没有变化。上一年春季海冰退缩的日期与C1凋落物的大小呈正相关，表明随后几年随着海冰破裂时间的增加，较小的凋落物。我们的研究为KB北极熊亚群扩大范围，改善身体状况和稳定繁殖性能提供了证据。这些变化以及可能增加的亚种群数量可能反映了从多年生厚的冰到具有更高生物生产力的较薄的季节性生冰的转变。
更新日期：2020-10-19
中文翻译：
气候变化对北极北极熊（Ursus maritimus）亚种群的短暂好处。
凯恩盆地（KB）是世界上最偏北的北极熊（Ursus maritimus））亚种群，历来都是多年生熊和多年生海冰的混合体。当前，由于气候变化，KB正在过渡到季节性无冰地区。据推测，由于冰稀薄和生物产量增加，这种生态转变将在短期内使北极熊受益，尽管这一经验尚未得到证实。我们评估了两个研究时期（1993-1997年和2012-2012年）从捕获-捕获（物理和遗传）和卫星遥测研究获得的KB值的海冰变化以及北极熊的运动，季节性范围，身体状况和生殖指标的变化。 2016）。KB的海冰栖息地的年周期从1990年代的全年冰平台（夏季约50％覆盖）转变为夏季几乎完全融化（< 5％）。从海冰撤退到前进的平均时间从109天增加到160天（p = .004）。在1990年代至2010年代之间，成年女性（AF）的春季和夏季季节范围增加了一倍以上，并且在所有月份中均显着增大。所有年龄段和男女的身体状况得分均得到改善。幼崽的平均产仔数（C0s）和一岁鸽（C1s）以及每个AF的C1数量在数十年间没有变化。上一年春季海冰退缩的日期与C1凋落物的大小呈正相关，表明随后几年随着海冰破裂时间的增加，较小的凋落物。我们的研究为KB北极熊亚群扩大范围，改善身体状况和稳定繁殖性能提供了证据。这些变化以及可能增加的亚种群数量可能反映了从多年生厚的冰到具有更高生物生产力的较薄的季节性生冰的转变。
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