Justice‐involved people vary substantially in their risk of reoffending. To date, recidivism prediction and prevention efforts have largely focused on individual‐level factors like antisocial traits. Although a growing body of research has examined the role of residential contexts in predicting reoffending, results have been equivocal. One reason for mixed results may be that an individual’s susceptibility to contextual influence depends upon his or her accumulated risk of reoffending. Based on a sample of 2218 people on probation in San Francisco, California, this study draws on observational and secondary data to test the hypothesis that individual risk moderates the effect of neighborhood factors on recidivism. Results from survival analyses indicate that individual risk interacts with neighborhood concentrated disadvantage and disorder—and these factors increase recidivism among people relatively low in individual risk, but not those at higher risk. This is consistent with the disadvantage saturation perspective, raising the possibility that some people classified as low risk might not recidivate but for placement in disadvantaged and disorderly neighborhoods. Ultimately, residential contexts “matter” for lower risk people and may be useful to consider in efforts to prevent recidivism.

中文翻译：

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累犯的邻里风险因素：它们对谁重要？

涉及司法的人再次犯罪的风险差异很大。迄今为止，累犯预测和预防工作主要集中在个人层面的因素，如反社会特征。尽管越来越多的研究已经检验了居住环境在预测再犯罪中的作用，但结果却模棱两可。混合结果的一个原因可能是个人对环境影响的敏感性取决于他或她累积的再次犯罪风险。本研究基于加利福尼亚州旧金山的 2218 名缓刑人员的样本，利用观察性和二手数据来检验个人风险缓和邻里因素对累犯影响的假设。生存分析的结果表明，个人风险与社区集中的劣势和混乱相互作用——这些因素增加了个人风险相对较低的人的累犯率，但不会增加风险较高的人的累犯率。这与劣势饱和的观点是一致的，增加了一些被归类为低风险的人可能不会再犯，而是被安置在劣势和混乱社区的可能性。归根结底，居住环境对风险较低的人来说“很重要”，可能有助于防止再犯。提高了一些被归类为低风险的人可能不会再犯，而是被安置在弱势和混乱的社区的可能性。归根结底，居住环境对风险较低的人来说“很重要”，可能有助于防止再犯。提高了一些被归类为低风险的人可能不会再犯，而是被安置在弱势和混乱的社区的可能性。归根结底，居住环境对风险较低的人来说“很重要”，可能有助于防止再犯。