Land use and land cover (LULC) change is one of the key driving elements responsible for altering the hydrology of a watershed. In this study, we investigated the spatio-temporal LULC changes between 2001 and 2018 and their impacts on the water balance of the Jhelum River Basin. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to analyze the impacts on water yield (WY) and evapotranspiration (ET). The model was calibrated and validated with discharge data between 1995 and 2005 and then simulated with different land use. The increase was observed in forest, settlement and water areas during the study period. At the catchment scale, we found that afforestation has reduced the WY and surface runoff, while enhanced the ET. Moreover, this change was more pronounced at the sub-basin scale. Some sub-basins, especially in the northern part of the study area, exhibited an increase in WY due to an increase in the snow cover area. Similarly, extremes land use scenarios also showed significant impact on water balance components. The basin WY has decreased by 38 mm/year and ET has increased about 36 mm/year. The findings of this study could guide the watershed manager in the development of sustainable LULC planning and water resources management.

土地利用和土地覆被（LULC）的变化是负责改变流域水文学的关键驱动因素之一。在这项研究中，我们调查了2001年至2018年之间时空LULC的变化及其对Jhelum流域水平衡的影响。土壤和水评估工具（SWAT）用于分析对水产量（WY）和蒸散（ET）的影响。该模型已通过1995年至2005年的流量数据进行了校准和验证，然后在不同的土地利用条件下进行了仿真。在研究期间，在森林，定居点和水域中观察到了增加。在流域尺度上，我们发现绿化减少了怀俄明州和地表径流，同时提高了ET。而且，这种变化在次流域尺度上更为明显。一些子流域，特别是在研究区域的北部，由于积雪面积的增加，WY有所增加。同样，极端的土地利用情景也显示出对水平衡组成部分的重大影响。盆地WY减少了38毫米/年，而ET增加了约36毫米/年。这项研究的结果可以指导分水岭管理者发展可持续的土地利用，土地利用变化的规划和水资源管理。