The assessment of flood risk under climate change impacts is necessary for sustainable flood management strategies at national level. Referring to the aforesaid statement, this research aims to evaluate the potential impacts of climate change on reservoir operations in the Huong River Basin, Vietnam. To enable further representation of climate change impacts, the HadGEM3-RA Regional Climate Model (RCM) under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 8.5 climate change scenario was used in this study. For assessing the level of flood risk posed to the study area, a coupled HEC-HMS hydrologic model and HEC-RAS hydrodynamic model was used to represent the behaviour of flow regimes under climate change impacts in the Huong River Basin. The key results demonstrated that the mean temperature and mean annual rainfall would be increased in the future from 0.2–0.8°C, and 4.8–6.0%, respectively. Consequently, the mean annual runoff and mean water level would also be increased from 10–30%, and 0.1–0.3 m above mean sea level, respectively. Moreover, the proposed reservoir operation rules corresponding to flood control warning stages was also derived to reduce peak flows downstream during the rainy season. Finally, the main findings of this study can be a good example for future planning of flood control reservoir systems in Vietnam.

中文翻译：

---

识别适应性水库运行以应对未来的气候变化情景：以越南中部为例

对气候变化影响下的洪水风险进行评估对于国家一级的可持续洪水管理策略是必要的。参照上述声明，本研究旨在评估气候变化对越南香江流域水库运营的潜在影响。为了能够进一步表示气候变化的影响，本研究使用了代表性浓度路径（RCP）8.5气候变化情景下的HadGEM3-RA区域气候模型（RCM）。为了评估研究区域的洪灾风险水平，使用了HEC-HMS水文模型和HEC-RAS水力学模型耦合来表示洪河流域在气候变化影响下的流动状态行为。关键结果表明，未来平均温度和年平均降雨量将分别从0.2-0.8°C和4.8-6.0％升高。因此，年均径流量和平均水位也将分别从平均海平面上升10％至30％和0.1-0.3 m。此外，还提出了与防洪预警阶段相对应的拟议水库运行规则，以减少雨季下游的洪峰流量。最后，这项研究的主要发现可以作为越南防洪水库系统未来规划的一个很好的例子。还提出了与防洪预警阶段相对应的水库调度规则，以减少雨季下游的洪峰流量。最后，这项研究的主要发现可以作为越南防洪水库系统未来规划的一个很好的例子。还提出了与防洪预警阶段相对应的水库调度规则，以减少雨季下游的洪峰流量。最后，这项研究的主要发现可以作为越南防洪水库系统未来规划的一个很好的例子。