A significant link between forest loss and fragmentation and outbreaks of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in humans has been documented. Deforestation may alter the natural circulation of viruses and change the composition, abundance, behaviour and possibly viral exposure of reservoir species. This in turn might increase contact between infected animals and humans. Fruit bats of the family Pteropodidae have been suspected as reservoirs of the Ebola virus. At present, the only evidence associating fruit bats with EVD is the presence of seropositive individuals in eight species and polymerase chain reaction‐positive individuals in three of these. Our study investigates whether human activities can increase African fruit bat geographical ranges and whether this influence overlaps geographically with EVD outbreaks that, in turn, are favoured by deforestation. We use species observation records for the 20 fruit bat species found in favourable areas for the Ebola virus to determine factors affecting the bats' range inside the predicted Ebola virus area. We do this by employing a hypothetico‐deductive approach based on favourability modelling. We show that the range of some fruit bat species is linked to human activities within the favourable areas for the Ebola virus. More specifically, the areas where human activities favour the presence of five fruit bat species overlap with the areas where EVD outbreaks in humans were themselves favoured by deforestation. These five species are as follows: Eidolon helvum, Epomops franqueti, Megaloglossus woermanni, Micropteropus pusillus and Rousettus aegyptiacus. Of these five, all but Megaloglossus woermanni have recorded seropositive individuals. For the remaining 15 bat species, we found no biogeographical support for the hypothesis that positive human influence on fruit bats could be associated with EVD outbreaks in deforested areas within the tropical forest biome in West and Central Africa. Our work is a useful first step allowing further investigation of the networks and pathways that may lead to an EVD outbreak. The modelling framework we employ here can be used for other emerging infectious diseases.

中文翻译：

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人类活动将果蝠的存在与埃博拉病毒病爆发联系起来

人类埃博拉病毒病 (EVD) 的森林丧失与破碎化和暴发之间存在重要联系。森林砍伐可能会改变病毒的自然循环，并改变宿主物种的组成、丰度、行为和可能的病毒暴露。这反过来可能会增加受感染动物与人类之间的接触。翼足科的果蝠被怀疑是埃博拉病毒的宿主。目前，将果蝠与 EVD 相关联的唯一证据是在 8 个物种中存在血清阳性个体，在其中 3 个物种中存在聚合酶链反应阳性个体。我们的研究调查了人类活动是否会增加非洲果蝠的地理范围，以及这种影响是否与埃博拉病毒病爆发在地理上重叠，反过来，受到森林砍伐的青睐。我们使用在埃博拉病毒有利区域发现的 20 种果蝠物种的物种观察记录来确定影响蝙蝠在预测的埃博拉病毒区域内活动范围的因素。我们通过采用基于好感度建模的假设演绎方法来做到这一点。我们表明，某些果蝠物种的分布范围与埃博拉病毒有利区域内的人类活动有关。更具体地说，人类活动有利于五种果蝠物种存在的地区与人类爆发埃博拉病毒病本身因森林砍伐而受到青睐的地区重叠。这五个物种如下：Eidolon helvum、Epomops franqueti、Megaloglossus woermanni、Micropteropus pusillus 和 Rousettus aegyptiacus。这五个中，除了 Megaloglossus woermanni 外，其他所有人都记录了血清阳性个体。对于其余 15 种蝙蝠，我们发现没有生物地理支持这一假设，即人类对果蝠的积极影响可能与西非和中非热带森林生物群落内森林砍伐地区的埃博拉病毒病爆发有关。我们的工作是有用的第一步，可以进一步调查可能导致埃博拉病毒病爆发的网络和途径。我们在这里使用的建模框架可用于其他新兴传染病。我们的工作是有用的第一步，可以进一步调查可能导致埃博拉病毒病爆发的网络和途径。我们在这里使用的建模框架可用于其他新兴传染病。我们的工作是有用的第一步，可以进一步调查可能导致埃博拉病毒病爆发的网络和途径。我们在这里使用的建模框架可用于其他新兴传染病。