This paper presents the calibration of Omori’s aftershock occurrence rate model for Turkey and the resulting likelihoods. Aftershock occurrence rate models are used for estimating the probability of an aftershock that exceeds a specific magnitude threshold within a time interval after the mainshock. Critical decisions on the post-earthquake safety of structures directly depend on the aftershock hazard estimated using the occurrence model. It is customary to calibrate models in a region-specific manner. These models depend on rate parameters (a, b, c and p) related to the seismicity characteristics of the investigated region. In this study, the available well-recorded aftershock sequences for a set of M_w ≥ 5.9 mainshock events that were observed in Turkey until 2012 are considered to develop the aftershock occurrence model. Mean estimates of the model parameters identified for Turkey are a = -1.90, b = 1.11, c = 0.05 and p = 1.20. Based on the developed model, aftershock likelihoods are computed for a range of diff erent time intervals and mainshock magnitudes. Also, the sensitivity of aftershock probabilities to the model parameters is investigated. Aftershock occurrence probabilities estimated using the model are expected to be useful for post-earthquake safety evaluations in Turkey.

中文翻译：

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针对土耳其校准的余震发生模型的开发以及由此产生的可能性

本文介绍了针对土耳其的大森余震发生率模型的标定以及由此产生的可能性。余震发生率模型用于估算在主震后的时间间隔内，余震超过特定幅度阈值的概率。有关建筑物地震后安全性的关键决策直接取决于使用发生模型估算的余震危害。通常以区域特定的方式校准模型。这些模型取决于与研究区域的地震活动特征有关的速率参数（a，b，c和p）。在这项研究中，一组M _w可用的记录良好的余震序列在土耳其直到2012年之前观察到的≥5.9次主震事件被认为发展了余震发生模型。为土耳其确定的模型参数的平均估计值为a = -1.90，b = 1.11，c = 0.05和p = 1.20。基于开发的模型，针对不同时间间隔和主震幅度的范围计算余震可能性。此外，还研究了余震概率对模型参数的敏感性。使用该模型估计的余震发生概率预计将对土耳其的地震后安全性评估有用。