The project management field has the imperative to increase the project probability of success. Experts have developed several project management maturity models to assets and improve the project outcome. However, the current literature lacks of models allowing correlating the measured maturity and the expected probability of success. This paper uses the characteristics of Bayesian networks to formalize experts' knowledge and to extract knowledge from a project overcost database. It develops a method to estimate the impact of project management maturity on the risk of project overcost. A general framework is presented. An industrial case is used to illustrate the application of the method.

中文翻译：

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使用贝叶斯网络特征将项目管理成熟度与项目成本过高风险联系起来

项目管理领域迫切需要提高项目成功的可能性。专家们已经为资产开发了多种项目管理成熟度模型，并改善了项目成果。然而，当前的文献缺乏允许将测量的成熟度与预期成功概率相关联的模型。本文利用贝叶斯网络的特点将专家的知识形式化，并从项目成本过高的数据库中提取知识。它开发了一种方法来估计项目管理成熟度对项目成本过高风险的影响。提出了一个通用框架。通过一个工业案例来说明该方法的应用。